Tennis · M25 Guiyang · 16/09, 04:00
Prediction: Minghui Zhang vs Chase Ferguson
Team pages: Minghui Zhang · Chase Ferguson
Prediction summary
Winner
Minghui Zhang
Chase Ferguson
Estimated games
22.1
Recent form · 10 last
Minghui Zhang
2-8 (W-L)
Chase Ferguson
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Minghui Zhang 1439 · Chase Ferguson 1542
| Minghui Zhang | Chase Ferguson | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 64% |
| Market | 12% | 88% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chase Ferguson (rating 1439 vs 1542).
- Chase Ferguson is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Minghui Zhang | Chase Ferguson | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 30% (10) | 75% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.6 | 1.5-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.7-11.5 | 12.3-10.6 |
| Aces | 2.7 | 2.2 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 1.3 |
| 1st serve % | 63.8% | 68.2% |
| Break % | 41.9% | 40.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.1
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Minghui Zhang
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | Zijiang Yang M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 15/07 | Zhao Zhao M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 07/07 | Masaki Ishikawa M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
1-2 | 7-8 | L |
| 01/07 | Fitriadi M Rifqi M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 30/06 | Hao Sheng Koay M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-1 | 8-8 | W |
| 03/06 | Yaojie Zeng M15 Luan · ~Hard |
1-2 | 13-13 | L |
| 29/05 | Yaojie Zeng M15 Luan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 28/05 | Tsung-Hao Huang M15 Luan · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 27/05 | Emiliano Jorquera M15 Luan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/05 | Aoran Wang M15 Luan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Chase Ferguson
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Jerry Roddick M25 Sapporo |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 11/09 | Sanhui Shin M25 Sapporo |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 10/09 | Yuki Mochizuki M25 Sapporo |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 08/09 | Riku Takahata M25 Sapporo |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 03/09 | Keisuke Saitoh M25 Urayasu |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 02/09 | Yusuke Takahashi M25 Urayasu |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 29/08 | Rigele Te M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 28/08 | Fumin Jiang M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 27/08 | Hanyi Liu M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/08 | Yua Taka M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Minghui Zhang vs Chase Ferguson?
Our model gives 77% to Chase Ferguson, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.