Tennis · Challenger Guangzhou · 15/09, 11:00
Prediction: Bernard Tomic vs Yuta Kikuchi
Team pages: Bernard Tomic · Yuta Kikuchi
Prediction summary
Winner
Bernard Tomic
Yuta Kikuchi
Estimated games
21.8
Recent form · 10 last
Bernard Tomic
4-6 (W-L)
Yuta Kikuchi
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bernard Tomic 1543 · Yuta Kikuchi 1492
| Bernard Tomic | Yuta Kikuchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 88% | 12% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bernard Tomic (rating 1543 vs 1492).
Statistics
| Bernard Tomic | Yuta Kikuchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1.1 | 1.1-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.2-11.9 | 8.8-10.6 |
| Aces | 6.7 | 1.3 |
| Double faults | 2.7 | 2.3 |
| 1st serve % | 71.9% | 62.4% |
| Break % | 35.4% | 50.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bernard Tomic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/09 | Ilya Ivashka Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 08/09 | Akira Santillan Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 03/09 | Kasidit Samrej Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 01/09 | Masamichi Imamura Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 25/08 | Lloyd Harris US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 13/08 | Edward Winter Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 31/07 | Cameron Norrie ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 30/07 | Karen Khachanov ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 28/07 | Alex Hernandez ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 26/07 | Miguel Tobon ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
Yuta Kikuchi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09 | Tsung-Hao Huang Challenger Guangzhou · Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 10/09 | Yunseong Chung M25 Sapporo |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 08/09 | Sena Okabe M25 Sapporo |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 11/08 | Kousuke Ogura M15 Tianjin |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 04/08 | Qian Sun M15 Tianjin |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 09/06 | Shinji Hazawa M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
1-2 | 9-16 | L |
| 20/05 | Noritaka Koizumi M15 Luan · ~Hard |
1-2 | 8-15 | L |
| 15/05 | Uisung Park M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 14/05 | Weiwen Pan M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-0 | 10-4 | W |
| 13/05 | Charlie Pade M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bernard Tomic vs Yuta Kikuchi?
Our model gives 74% to Bernard Tomic, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.