Tennis · Challenger Phan Thiet · 15/09, 08:00
Prediction: Timofei Derepasko vs Ilia Simakin
Team pages: Timofei Derepasko · Ilia Simakin
Prediction summary
Winner
Timofei Derepasko
Ilia Simakin
Estimated games
20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Timofei Derepasko
7-3 (W-L)
Ilia Simakin
10-0 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Timofei Derepasko 1563 · Ilia Simakin 1670
| Timofei Derepasko | Ilia Simakin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 65% |
| Market | 12% | 88% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ilia Simakin (rating 1563 vs 1670).
- Ilia Simakin dominates on serve: 7.8 aces and 54.2% break avg.
- Ilia Simakin is in better form: 100% recent wins.
Statistics
| Timofei Derepasko | Ilia Simakin | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 100% |
| Win % · Hard | 83% (6) | 100% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.7 | 2-0.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.3-7.8 | 13.4-8.1 |
| Aces | 2.8 | 7.8 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 67.8% | 81% |
| Break % | 56.8% | 54.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Timofei Derepasko
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09 | Taisei Ichikawa Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 13/09 | Stefan Storch Challenger Phan Thiet Qual · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 10/09 | Cruz Hewitt Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 08/09 | Sam Ryan Ziegann Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 07/09 | Taiyo Yamanaka Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 06/09 | Minhthien Nguyen Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 21/08 | Dimitar Kisimov M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 20/08 | Alessandro Bellifemine M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 19/08 | Egor Shcherbakov M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 12/08 | Sean Cuenin M25 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
Ilia Simakin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09 | Arthur Weber Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 12/09 | Max Purcell Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 11/09 | Philip Sekulic Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 10/09 | Enzo Aguiard Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 08/09 | Sergio Callejon Hernando Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 06/09 | Kasidit Samrej Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 05/09 | Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 04/09 | Ilya Ivashka Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 03/09 | Matthew Dellavedova Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 01/09 | Denis Yevseyev Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Timofei Derepasko vs Ilia Simakin?
Our model gives 77% to Ilia Simakin, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.