Tennis · Challenger Phan Thiet · 15/09, 05:00
Prediction: Blake Ellis vs Hiroki Moriya
Team pages: Blake Ellis · Hiroki Moriya
Prediction summary
Winner
Blake Ellis
Hiroki Moriya
Estimated games
22
Recent form · 10 last
Blake Ellis
4-6 (W-L)
Hiroki Moriya
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Blake Ellis
1–0
Hiroki Moriya
(1 last)
- 05 Oct2-1 15-16W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Blake Ellis 1490 · Hiroki Moriya 1500
| Blake Ellis | Hiroki Moriya | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 51% |
| Market | 46% | 54% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Blake Ellis 1–0 Hiroki Moriya (1).
Statistics
| Blake Ellis | Hiroki Moriya | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 33% (3) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.3 | 1.1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.6-11.5 | 10.5-9.7 |
| Aces | 7.3 | 2.3 |
| Double faults | 1.1 | 3.1 |
| 1st serve % | 68.1% | 65.3% |
| Break % | 20.3% | 36.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22
H2H · Blake Ellis 1 – 0 Hiroki Moriya (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Blake Ellis 1–0 Hiroki Moriya
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10/24 ITF M25 Cairns | 2-1 | 15-16 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Blake Ellis
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/09 | Max Purcell Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 08/09 | Benjamin O'Connell Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/09 | Hayden Jones M15 Bali |
1-2 | 14-13 | L |
| 01/09 | Reece Falck M15 Bali |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 23/07 | Duje Markovina M15 Brisbane |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 21/07 | Joshua Charlton M15 Brisbane |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 16/07 | Benjamin O'Connell M25 Brisbane |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Hayden Jones M25 Brisbane |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 05/07 | Garrett Johns Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 02/07 | Ozan Baris Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Hiroki Moriya
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09 | Yuta Shimizu Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
1-2 | 18-19 | L |
| 09/09 | Maximus Jones Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 07/09 | Dominik Palan Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 01/09 | Kasidit Samrej Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 31/08 | S D Prajwal Dev Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 30/08 | Grigoriy Lomakin Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/08 | Tung-Lin Wu M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 20/08 | Kousuke Ogura M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 28/07 | Jay Friend Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 19/07 | Patrick Maloney Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Blake Ellis vs Hiroki Moriya?
Our model gives 53% to Hiroki Moriya, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.