Tennis · Challenger Guangzhou · 15/09, 05:00
Prediction: Luca Castelnuovo vs Omar Jasika
Team pages: Luca Castelnuovo · Omar Jasika
Prediction summary
Winner
Luca Castelnuovo
Omar Jasika
Estimated games
21
Recent form · 10 last
Luca Castelnuovo
6-4 (W-L)
Omar Jasika
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Luca Castelnuovo
1–0
Omar Jasika
(1 last)
- 09 Sept2-0 14-12W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luca Castelnuovo 1585 · Omar Jasika 1550
| Luca Castelnuovo | Omar Jasika | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 38% | 63% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Luca Castelnuovo dominates on serve: 9.2 aces and 48% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Luca Castelnuovo 1–0 Omar Jasika (1).
Statistics
| Luca Castelnuovo | Omar Jasika | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 1.3-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.1-11.1 | 10.5-8.7 |
| Aces | 9.2 | 1.8 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 77.4% | 70% |
| Break % | 48% | 42.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21
H2H · Luca Castelnuovo 1 – 0 Omar Jasika (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Luca Castelnuovo 1–0 Omar Jasika
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09/25 Challenger Guangzhou | 2-0 | 14-12 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luca Castelnuovo
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Ilya Ivashka Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 11/09 | Ji Sung Nam Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 10/09 | Tung-Lin Wu Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 08/09 | Chun Hsin Tseng Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 07/09 | Tsung-Hao Huang Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 29/08 | Kuan-Shou Chen M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 28/08 | Yanki Erel M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 27/08 | Hiromasa Koyama M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 26/08 | Moerani Bouzige M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 19/07 | Alexander Vasilev Challenger Segovia · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Omar Jasika
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 09/09 | Rio Noguchi Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 08/09 | Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 07/09 | Yaojie Zeng Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 01/09 | Akira Santillan Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 31/08 | Filip Peliwo Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/08 | Aoran Wang Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 27/08 | Kuan-Shou Chen M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Kousuke Ogura M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/08 | Ryuki Matsuda M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
1-2 | 10-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luca Castelnuovo vs Omar Jasika?
Our model gives 55% to Omar Jasika, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.