Tennis · Challenger Guangzhou · 15/09, 05:00
Prediction: Kaichi Uchida vs Rio Noguchi
Team pages: Kaichi Uchida · Rio Noguchi
Prediction summary
Winner
Kaichi Uchida
Rio Noguchi
Estimated games
21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Kaichi Uchida
1-9 (W-L)
Rio Noguchi
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Kaichi Uchida
3–3
Rio Noguchi
(6 last)
- 15 Oct2-1 17-14W
- 28 Aug2-0 13-7W
- 21 Jul0-2 1-12L
- 09 Jan1-2 15-18L
- 01 Jan1-2 10-18L
- 01 Jul2-0 12-4W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kaichi Uchida 1398 · Rio Noguchi 1485
| Kaichi Uchida | Rio Noguchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 62% |
| Market | 22% | 78% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rio Noguchi (rating 1398 vs 1485).
- Rio Noguchi is in better form: 50% recent wins.
Statistics
| Kaichi Uchida | Rio Noguchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 0% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 0% (5) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.1-2 | 1.1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 6.5-12.5 | 11.6-11.3 |
| Aces | 7.3 | 1.6 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 1.2 |
| 1st serve % | 63.9% | 66% |
| Break % | 27.7% | 48.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.5
H2H · Kaichi Uchida 3 – 3 Rio Noguchi (6)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Kaichi Uchida 3–3 Rio Noguchi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/10/25 Challenger Shenzhen | 2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 28/08/25 Challenger Zhangjiagang | 2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 21/07/24 Challenger Chicago | 0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 09/01/24 Challenger Nonthaburi | 1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 01/01/24 Challenger Nonthaburi | 1-2 | 10-18 | L |
| 01/07/21 M25 Bakio | 2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kaichi Uchida
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09 | Linang Xiao Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 31/08 | Hanyi Liu Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 26/08 | Tianhui Zhang M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 14/07 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Granby · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 08/07 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Jack Kennedy Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Bernard Tomic Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 14/06 | Quinn Vandecasteele Challenger Dublin · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 19/05 | Pierre-Hugues Herbert French Open · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 11/05 | Max Houkes Challenger Tunis · Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
Rio Noguchi
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09 | Omar Jasika Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 07/09 | Rigele Te Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 25/08 | Bu Yunchaokete US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 19/08 | Alan Magadan Challenger Cancun · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 18/08 | Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 24/07 | Charles Broom Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/07 | Keegan Rice Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 21/07 | Braden Shick Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 18/07 | Mark Lajal Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 15/07 | Dhakshineswar Suresh Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kaichi Uchida vs Rio Noguchi?
Our model gives 71% to Rio Noguchi, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.