Tennis · Challenger Guangzhou · 15/09, 05:00
Prediction: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Pavel Kotov
Team pages: Shintaro Mochizuki · Pavel Kotov
Prediction summary
Winner
Shintaro Mochizuki
Pavel Kotov
Estimated games
22.8
Recent form · 10 last
Shintaro Mochizuki
2-8 (W-L)
Pavel Kotov
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Shintaro Mochizuki 1466 · Pavel Kotov 1516
| Shintaro Mochizuki | Pavel Kotov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 56% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pavel Kotov (rating 1466 vs 1516).
- Note: Shintaro Mochizuki makes many double faults (6.1/match).
Statistics
| Shintaro Mochizuki | Pavel Kotov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (10) | 75% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.5 | 1.2-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.6-12.8 | 11.9-12.4 |
| Aces | 2.2 | 4.7 |
| Double faults | 6.1 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 67.4% | 70.3% |
| Break % | 48.1% | 42.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Shintaro Mochizuki
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Jakub Mensik US Open · Hard |
0-3 | 10-19 | L |
| 28/08 | Francesco Passaro US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Braden Shick US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 25/08 | Daniel Milavsky US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 20/08 | Soonwoo Kwon Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 12/08 | Jeffrey John Wolf ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 04/08 | Fabian Marozsan ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 01/08 | Dane Sweeny ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 14-15 | W |
| 30/07 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Charles Broom Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-1 | 14-12 | W |
Pavel Kotov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09 | Marat Sharipov Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 11/09 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 09/09 | Jake Delaney Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 08/09 | Elias Ymer Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 28/07 | Daniel Elahi Galan Challenger Bonn · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Franco Ribero Challenger Royan · Clay |
2-1 | 18-10 | W |
| 09/06 | Marco Trungelliti Challenger Lyon · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 01/06 | Guy Den Ouden Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 28/05 | Cezar Cretu Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
1-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 26/05 | Gauthier Onclin Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Shintaro Mochizuki vs Pavel Kotov?
Our model gives 50% to Shintaro Mochizuki, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.