Tennis · Challenger Guangzhou · 13/09, 11:30
Prediction: Daisuke Sumizawa vs Kousuke Ogura
Team pages: Daisuke Sumizawa · Kousuke Ogura
Prediction summary
Winner
Daisuke Sumizawa
Kousuke Ogura
Estimated games
20.7
Recent form · 10 last
Daisuke Sumizawa
2-8 (W-L)
Kousuke Ogura
2-8 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Daisuke Sumizawa
2–1
Kousuke Ogura
(3 last)
- 23 Apr2-1 18-14W
- 30 Sept1-2 10-15L
- 06 Oct2-0 12-5W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Daisuke Sumizawa 1446 · Kousuke Ogura 1501
| Daisuke Sumizawa | Kousuke Ogura | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 58% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kousuke Ogura (rating 1446 vs 1501).
- Kousuke Ogura is in better form: 50% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Daisuke Sumizawa 2–1 Kousuke Ogura (3).
Statistics
| Daisuke Sumizawa | Kousuke Ogura | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 29% (7) | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.6-1.6 | 1.1-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.1-11.3 | 9.6-11.1 |
| Aces | 4.8 | 1.7 |
| Double faults | 2.6 | 2.2 |
| 1st serve % | 71.1% | 63.5% |
| Break % | 29.7% | 48.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.7
H2H · Daisuke Sumizawa 2 – 1 Kousuke Ogura (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Daisuke Sumizawa 2–1 Kousuke Ogura
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/04/25 ITF M15 Osaka | 2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 30/09/21 M15 Monastir | 1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 06/10/18 ITF Thailand F6 | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Daisuke Sumizawa
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/09 | Markus Malaszszak M15 Nonthaburi · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 09/09 | Vraj Gohil M15 Nonthaburi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 03/09 | Mukund Sasikumar M15 Nonthaburi · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 02/09 | Chikaya Sato M15 Nonthaburi · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 05/08 | Donghyun Hwang M15 Tianjin |
1-2 | 11-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Ryotaro Taguchi M15 Bali |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 22/07 | Jake Delaney M15 Brisbane |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 07/07 | Riku Takahata M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 30/06 | Riku Takahata M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 15/06 | Yuto Oki M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
1-2 | 10-12 | L |
Kousuke Ogura
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/09 | Seong Chan Hong M25 Sapporo |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 09/09 | Robin Catry M25 Sapporo |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 02/09 | Yanki Erel M25 Urayasu |
1-2 | 9-14 | L |
| 26/08 | Omar Jasika M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 25/08 | Tomohiro Masabayashi M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-1 | 10-9 | W |
| 20/08 | Hiroki Moriya M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 16/08 | Omar Jasika M15 Tianjin |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 15/08 | Matthew Dellavedova M15 Tianjin |
2-1 | 16-16 | W |
| 14/08 | Duckhee Lee M15 Tianjin |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 13/08 | Mikalai Haliak M15 Tianjin |
2-1 | 9-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Daisuke Sumizawa vs Kousuke Ogura?
Our model gives 62% to Kousuke Ogura, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.