Tennis · Challenger Shanghai · 12/09, 11:00
Prediction: Luca Castelnuovo vs Ilya Ivashka
Team pages: Luca Castelnuovo · Ilya Ivashka
Prediction summary
Winner
Luca Castelnuovo
Ilya Ivashka
Estimated games
22.4
Recent form · 10 last
Luca Castelnuovo
6-4 (W-L)
Ilya Ivashka
7-3 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luca Castelnuovo 1568 · Ilya Ivashka 1579
| Luca Castelnuovo | Ilya Ivashka | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 52% |
| Market | 25% | 75% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Luca Castelnuovo dominates on serve: 9.4 aces and 47.2% break avg.
Statistics
| Luca Castelnuovo | Ilya Ivashka | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 1.6-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.3-11.2 | 13.3-9.5 |
| Aces | 9.4 | 4.9 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 2.7 |
| 1st serve % | 77.2% | 78.7% |
| Break % | 47.2% | 40.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luca Castelnuovo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09 | Ji Sung Nam Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 10/09 | Tung-Lin Wu Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 08/09 | Chun Hsin Tseng Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 07/09 | Tsung-Hao Huang Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 29/08 | Kuan-Shou Chen M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 28/08 | Yanki Erel M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 27/08 | Hiromasa Koyama M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 26/08 | Moerani Bouzige M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 19/07 | Alexander Vasilev Challenger Segovia · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Antoine Ghibaudo Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Ilya Ivashka
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09 | Yi Zhou Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 10/09 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 08/09 | Yu Hsiou Hsu Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/09 | Ilia Simakin Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 03/09 | Akira Santillan Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 01/09 | Yi Zhou Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 07/08 | Joel Schwaerzler Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 04/08 | Ergi Kirkin Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 03/08 | Oscar Weightman Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/08 | Melvin Kumar Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luca Castelnuovo vs Ilya Ivashka?
Our model gives 64% to Ilya Ivashka, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.