Tennis · Challenger Shanghai · 11/09, 09:00
Prediction: Ilya Ivashka vs Yi Zhou
Team pages: Ilya Ivashka · Yi Zhou
Prediction summary
Winner
Ilya Ivashka
Yi Zhou
Estimated games
22.7
Recent form · 10 last
Ilya Ivashka
6-4 (W-L)
Yi Zhou
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Ilya Ivashka
1–0
Yi Zhou
(1 last)
- 01 Sept2-1 16-15W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ilya Ivashka 1565 · Yi Zhou 1507
| Ilya Ivashka | Yi Zhou | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 56% | 44% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ilya Ivashka (rating 1565 vs 1507).
- Yi Zhou dominates on serve: 8.5 aces and 45.7% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Ilya Ivashka 1–0 Yi Zhou (1).
Statistics
| Ilya Ivashka | Yi Zhou | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 50% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-1 | 1.3-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.7-10.1 | 13-12.2 |
| Aces | 4.6 | 8.5 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 77.7% | 73.8% |
| Break % | 41.1% | 45.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.7
H2H · Ilya Ivashka 1 – 0 Yi Zhou (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ilya Ivashka 1–0 Yi Zhou
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09/26 Challenger Zhangjiagang | 2-1 | 16-15 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ilya Ivashka
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/09 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 08/09 | Yu Hsiou Hsu Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/09 | Ilia Simakin Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 03/09 | Akira Santillan Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 01/09 | Yi Zhou Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 07/08 | Joel Schwaerzler Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 04/08 | Ergi Kirkin Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 03/08 | Oscar Weightman Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 02/08 | Melvin Kumar Challenger Grodzisk Mazowiecki · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 21/07 | Gonzalo Villanueva Challenger Segovia · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Yi Zhou
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/09 | Jie Cui Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 08/09 | Sergey Fomin Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 01/09 | Ilya Ivashka Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 29/07 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 22/07 | Luka Pavlovic Challenger Segovia · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 20/07 | Michael Geerts Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 15/07 | Tiago Pereira Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
1-2 | 16-18 | L |
| 14/07 | Stefan Kozlov Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 10/07 | Alastair Gray Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 08/07 | Daniel De Jonge Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-1 | 18-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ilya Ivashka vs Yi Zhou?
Our model gives 57% to Ilya Ivashka, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.