Tennis · Challenger Shanghai · 11/09, 04:00
Prediction: Pavel Kotov vs Alexis Galarneau
Team pages: Pavel Kotov · Alexis Galarneau
Prediction summary
Winner
Pavel Kotov
Alexis Galarneau
Estimated games
22.6
Recent form · 10 last
Pavel Kotov
5-5 (W-L)
Alexis Galarneau
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Pavel Kotov
1–0
Alexis Galarneau
(1 last)
- 17 Mar2-1 16-9W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Pavel Kotov 1514 · Alexis Galarneau 1534
| Pavel Kotov | Alexis Galarneau | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 53% |
| Market | 46% | 54% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Head-to-head: Pavel Kotov 1–0 Alexis Galarneau (1).
Statistics
| Pavel Kotov | Alexis Galarneau | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 75% (4) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.4 | 1.2-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.3-12.9 | 11.3-10.2 |
| Aces | 4.6 | 3.2 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 69.6% | 68.3% |
| Break % | 42.6% | 48.7% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.6
H2H · Pavel Kotov 1 – 0 Alexis Galarneau (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Pavel Kotov 1–0 Alexis Galarneau
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/03/25 ATP Miami | 2-1 | 16-9 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Pavel Kotov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09 | Jake Delaney Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 08/09 | Elias Ymer Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 28/07 | Daniel Elahi Galan Challenger Bonn · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Franco Ribero Challenger Royan · Clay |
2-1 | 18-10 | W |
| 09/06 | Marco Trungelliti Challenger Lyon · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 01/06 | Guy Den Ouden Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 28/05 | Cezar Cretu Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
1-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 26/05 | Gauthier Onclin Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 21/04 | Mikhail Kukushkin Challenger Gwangju · Hard |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 12/04 | Harry Wendelken Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
Alexis Galarneau
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09 | Linang Xiao Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 07/09 | Semen Pankin Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 26/08 | Dalibor Svrcina US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 24/08 | Keegan Smith US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 21/08 | Jacob Fearnley Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 20/08 | Dino Prizmic Challenger Quebec City · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 03/08 | Vit Kopriva ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 18/07 | Aleksandar Vukic Challenger Granby · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 15/07 | Tyler Zink Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 14/07 | Kaichi Uchida Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Pavel Kotov vs Alexis Galarneau?
Our model gives 53% to Alexis Galarneau, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.