Tennis · Challenger Seville · 10/09, 10:00
Prediction: Pavel Lagutin vs Max Alcala Gurri
Team pages: Pavel Lagutin · Max Alcala Gurri
Prediction summary
Winner
Pavel Lagutin
Max Alcala Gurri
Estimated games
20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Pavel Lagutin
8-2 (W-L)
Max Alcala Gurri
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Pavel Lagutin 1665 · Max Alcala Gurri 1534
| Pavel Lagutin | Max Alcala Gurri | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 68% | 32% |
| Market | 42% | 58% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pavel Lagutin (rating 1665 vs 1534).
- Pavel Lagutin is in better form: 90% recent wins.
Statistics
| Pavel Lagutin | Max Alcala Gurri | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 90% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 100% (3) | 67% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.8-0.5 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.2-7.8 | 10.9-9.1 |
| Aces | 1 | 1.6 |
| Double faults | 1.5 | 2.1 |
| 1st serve % | 69.1% | 67.1% |
| Break % | 46% | 47.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Pavel Lagutin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09 | Vilius Gaubas Challenger Seville · Clay |
2-1 | 15-8 | W |
| 07/09 | Tiago Pereira Challenger Seville · Clay |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 06/09 | Mario Gonzalez Fernandez Challenger Seville · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 23/08 | Goncalo Marques M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 22/08 | Rodrigo Fernandes M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 21/08 | Mathieu Scaglia M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 20/08 | Tiago Silva M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 18/08 | Benjamin Pietri M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 14/08 | Philip Henning M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Rafael Izquierdo Luque M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 9-3 | W |
Max Alcala Gurri
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09 | Gerard Campana Lee Challenger Seville · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 02/09 | Facundo Mena Challenger Porto · Clay |
1-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 25/08 | Zsombor Piros US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 10/08 | Eduardo Ribeiro Challenger Hamburg · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 23/07 | Dylan Dietrich Challenger Zug · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 21/07 | Martin Krumich Challenger Zug · Clay |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 19/07 | Federico Bondioli Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 18/07 | Gonzalo Villanueva Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 17/07 | Franco Roncadelli Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 16/07 | Lorenzo Angelini Challenger Cordenons · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Pavel Lagutin vs Max Alcala Gurri?
Our model gives 54% to Pavel Lagutin, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.