Tennis · Challenger Seville · 11/09, 18:00
Prediction: Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Sebastian Ofner
Team pages: Facundo Diaz Acosta · Sebastian Ofner
Prediction summary
Winner
Facundo Diaz Acosta
Sebastian Ofner
Estimated games
22.6
Recent form · 10 last
Facundo Diaz Acosta
7-3 (W-L)
Sebastian Ofner
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Facundo Diaz Acosta
0–1
Sebastian Ofner
(1 last)
- 26 May0-2 8-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Facundo Diaz Acosta 1601 · Sebastian Ofner 1482
| Facundo Diaz Acosta | Sebastian Ofner | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 34% |
| Market | 63% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Facundo Diaz Acosta (rating 1601 vs 1482).
- Facundo Diaz Acosta is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Facundo Diaz Acosta 0–1 Sebastian Ofner (1).
Statistics
| Facundo Diaz Acosta | Sebastian Ofner | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 89% (9) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.8 | 0.9-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.3-10.1 | 10.5-11.6 |
| Aces | 2.9 | 5.2 |
| Double faults | 2 | 3.9 |
| 1st serve % | 71.4% | 73.9% |
| Break % | 47.1% | 47.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.6
H2H · Facundo Diaz Acosta 0 – 1 Sebastian Ofner (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Facundo Diaz Acosta 0–1 Sebastian Ofner
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/05/23 French Open | 0-2 | 8-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Facundo Diaz Acosta
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09 | Alejandro Moro Canas Challenger Seville · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 07/09 | Pol Martin Tiffon Challenger Seville · Clay |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 01/09 | Quentin Halys US Open · Hard |
1-3 | 17-25 | L |
| 02/08 | Mili Poljicak Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 01/08 | Vilius Gaubas Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 31/07 | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 29/07 | Francesco Forti Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 28/07 | Tommaso Compagnucci Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 22/07 | Alexander Bublik ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 20/07 | Federico Cina ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
Sebastian Ofner
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09 | Alexander Ritschard Challenger Seville · Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 08/09 | Felix Gill Challenger Seville · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/08 | Kei Nishikori US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 9-14 | L |
| 18/08 | Roman Safiullin Challenger Cancun · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 12/08 | Marco Trungelliti ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 01/08 | Jacob Fearnley ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 21/07 | Alex Molcan ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 08/07 | Daniel Rincon Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 07/07 | Norbert Gombos Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Facundo Diaz Acosta vs Sebastian Ofner?
Our model gives 64% to Facundo Diaz Acosta, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.