Tennis · Challenger Shanghai · 10/09, 09:00
Prediction: Pavel Kotov vs Jake Delaney
Team pages: Pavel Kotov · Jake Delaney
Prediction summary
Winner
Pavel Kotov
Jake Delaney
Estimated games
23
Recent form · 10 last
Pavel Kotov
5-5 (W-L)
Jake Delaney
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Pavel Kotov 1507 · Jake Delaney 1559
| Pavel Kotov | Jake Delaney | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 72% | 28% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jake Delaney (rating 1507 vs 1559).
- Jake Delaney dominates on serve: 8.6 aces and 49.6% break avg.
Statistics
| Pavel Kotov | Jake Delaney | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 75% (4) | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.5 | 1.4-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.5-13.2 | 11.8-10.7 |
| Aces | 4.4 | 8.6 |
| Double faults | 2.1 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 67.7% | 75.9% |
| Break % | 34.4% | 49.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Pavel Kotov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09 | Elias Ymer Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 28/07 | Daniel Elahi Galan Challenger Bonn · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Franco Ribero Challenger Royan · Clay |
2-1 | 18-10 | W |
| 09/06 | Marco Trungelliti Challenger Lyon · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 01/06 | Guy Den Ouden Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 28/05 | Cezar Cretu Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
1-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 26/05 | Gauthier Onclin Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 21/04 | Mikhail Kukushkin Challenger Gwangju · Hard |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 12/04 | Harry Wendelken Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 11/04 | Fajing Sun Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
Jake Delaney
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-18 | W |
| 01/09 | Koki Matsuda Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 26/08 | Hyeon Chung M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 01/08 | Moerani Bouzige M15 Brisbane |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/07 | Jeremy Zhang M15 Brisbane |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 29/07 | Joshua Charlton M15 Brisbane |
2-1 | 13-14 | W |
| 26/07 | Matthew Dellavedova M15 Brisbane |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 25/07 | Duje Markovina M15 Brisbane |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 24/07 | Taiki Takizawa M15 Brisbane |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 23/07 | Zachary Viiala M15 Brisbane |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Pavel Kotov vs Jake Delaney?
Our model gives 59% to Pavel Kotov, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.