Tennis · Challenger Shanghai · 10/09, 12:00
Prediction: Tung-Lin Wu vs Luca Castelnuovo
Team pages: Tung-Lin Wu · Luca Castelnuovo
Prediction summary
Winner
Tung-Lin Wu
Luca Castelnuovo
Estimated games
23.3
Recent form · 10 last
Tung-Lin Wu
5-5 (W-L)
Luca Castelnuovo
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tung-Lin Wu 1494 · Luca Castelnuovo 1542
| Tung-Lin Wu | Luca Castelnuovo | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Luca Castelnuovo (rating 1494 vs 1542).
- Luca Castelnuovo dominates on serve: 8 aces and 45.1% break avg.
Statistics
| Tung-Lin Wu | Luca Castelnuovo | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 44% (9) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.3 | 1.4-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.3-12.2 | 12.5-12.2 |
| Aces | 4.6 | 8 |
| Double faults | 1.6 | 3.9 |
| 1st serve % | 69.4% | 74.2% |
| Break % | 41.1% | 45.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tung-Lin Wu
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09 | Alexandr Binda Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 31/08 | Fajing Sun Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 21/08 | Shunsuke Mitsui M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
1-2 | 12-12 | L |
| 20/08 | Hiroki Moriya M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 19/08 | Taisei Ichikawa M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 13/07 | Coleman Wong Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 05/07 | Alex Rybakov Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 01/07 | Yosuke Watanuki Challenger Cary · Hard |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 30/06 | Justin Boulais Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
| 03/06 | Adam Walton Challenger Tyler · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
Luca Castelnuovo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09 | Chun Hsin Tseng Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
| 07/09 | Tsung-Hao Huang Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 29/08 | Kuan-Shou Chen M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 28/08 | Yanki Erel M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 27/08 | Hiromasa Koyama M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 26/08 | Moerani Bouzige M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 19/07 | Alexander Vasilev Challenger Segovia · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Antoine Ghibaudo Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 09/07 | Max Basing Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 07/07 | Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tung-Lin Wu vs Luca Castelnuovo?
Our model gives 56% to Tung-Lin Wu, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.