Tennis · Challenger Phan Thiet · 10/09, 05:00
Prediction: Kasidit Samrej vs Yuta Shimizu
Team pages: Kasidit Samrej · Yuta Shimizu
Prediction summary
Winner
Kasidit Samrej
Yuta Shimizu
Estimated games
21.7
Recent form · 10 last
Kasidit Samrej
8-2 (W-L)
Yuta Shimizu
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Kasidit Samrej
0–1
Yuta Shimizu
(1 last)
- 10 Jan0-2 8-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Kasidit Samrej 1616 · Yuta Shimizu 1506
| Kasidit Samrej | Yuta Shimizu | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 65% | 35% |
| Market | 34% | 66% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kasidit Samrej (rating 1616 vs 1506).
- Kasidit Samrej dominates on serve: 6.7 aces and 45.7% break avg.
- Kasidit Samrej is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Kasidit Samrej 0–1 Yuta Shimizu (1).
- Note: Kasidit Samrej makes many double faults (4/match).
Statistics
| Kasidit Samrej | Yuta Shimizu | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 56% (9) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.5 | 1.1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-9.3 | 11-10.9 |
| Aces | 6.7 | 4.3 |
| Double faults | 4 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 76.1% | 71% |
| Break % | 45.7% | 39.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.7
H2H · Kasidit Samrej 0 – 1 Yuta Shimizu (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Kasidit Samrej 0–1 Yuta Shimizu
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10/01/20 ITF M15 Hong Kong | 0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Kasidit Samrej
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09 | Sidharth Rawat Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 06/09 | Ilia Simakin Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 05/09 | Chun Hsin Tseng Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 04/09 | Enzo Aguiard Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 03/09 | Bernard Tomic Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 01/09 | Hiroki Moriya Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 29/08 | Matthew Dellavedova M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 28/08 | Yan Cheng Chen M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/08 | Kai-I Wang M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/08 | Yuki Mochizuki M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Yuta Shimizu
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09 | Aditya Vishal Balsekar Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 18/08 | Anton Matusevich Challenger Roehampton · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 23/07 | Johannus Monday Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 21/07 | Liam Broady Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 15/07 | Justin Boulais Challenger Granby · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 14/07 | Jay Friend Challenger Granby · Hard |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 07/07 | Ryan Colby M25 Laval |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Michael Mmoh Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 29/06 | Trevor Svajda Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 28/06 | Dan Martin Challenger Cary · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Kasidit Samrej vs Yuta Shimizu?
Our model gives 52% to Yuta Shimizu, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.