Tennis · Challenger Phan Thiet · 10/09, 05:00
Prediction: Maximus Jones vs Hiroki Moriya
Team pages: Maximus Jones · Hiroki Moriya
Prediction summary
Winner
Maximus Jones
Hiroki Moriya
Estimated games
20.8
Recent form · 10 last
Maximus Jones
5-5 (W-L)
Hiroki Moriya
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Maximus Jones
0–1
Hiroki Moriya
(1 last)
- 14 Jun0-2 9-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Maximus Jones 1533 · Hiroki Moriya 1491
| Maximus Jones | Hiroki Moriya | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Maximus Jones (rating 1533 vs 1491).
- Head-to-head: Maximus Jones 0–1 Hiroki Moriya (1).
Statistics
| Maximus Jones | Hiroki Moriya | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | 40% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.2 | 0.9-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-10.6 | 9.5-9.9 |
| Aces | 5.7 | 2.3 |
| Double faults | 1.8 | 3.1 |
| 1st serve % | 69.2% | 65.3% |
| Break % | 55.6% | 36.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.8
H2H · Maximus Jones 0 – 1 Hiroki Moriya (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Maximus Jones 0–1 Hiroki Moriya
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06/23 ITF M25 Nakhon Si Thammarat | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Maximus Jones
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/09 | Florent Bax Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 02/09 | Ivan Ivanov Challenger Manacor · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 01/09 | Oskari Paldanius Challenger Manacor · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 31/08 | Alastair Gray Challenger Manacor · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 04/07 | Matthew Dellavedova M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 03/07 | Kokoro Isomura M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 02/07 | Ryota Tanuma M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 01/07 | Makoto Ochi M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 17/06 | Hunter Heck M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 11/06 | Jangjun Kim M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Hiroki Moriya
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09 | Dominik Palan Challenger Phan Thiet · Hard |
2-1 | 16-9 | W |
| 01/09 | Kasidit Samrej Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 31/08 | S D Prajwal Dev Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 30/08 | Grigoriy Lomakin Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 20/08 | Tung-Lin Wu M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 20/08 | Kousuke Ogura M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 28/07 | Jay Friend Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 19/07 | Patrick Maloney Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 15/07 | Hayato Matsuoka Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 13/07 | Thomas Fancutt Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
1-2 | 13-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Maximus Jones vs Hiroki Moriya?
Our model gives 58% to Maximus Jones, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.