Tennis · Challenger Tulln · 09/09, 10:00
Prediction: Marvin Moeller vs Matias Soto
Team pages: Marvin Moeller · Matias Soto
Prediction summary
Winner
Marvin Moeller
Matias Soto
Estimated games
21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Marvin Moeller
6-4 (W-L)
Matias Soto
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Marvin Moeller
1–0
Matias Soto
(1 last)
- 26 Aug2-0 13-9W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marvin Moeller 1554 · Matias Soto 1513
| Marvin Moeller | Matias Soto | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Marvin Moeller (rating 1554 vs 1513).
- Head-to-head: Marvin Moeller 1–0 Matias Soto (1).
Statistics
| Marvin Moeller | Matias Soto | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Clay | 60% (10) | 43% (7) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 1-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.2-10.8 | 9.2-9.9 |
| Aces | 4 | 4.2 |
| Double faults | 3.2 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 74.6% | 70.9% |
| Break % | 22% | 39.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.5
H2H · Marvin Moeller 1 – 0 Matias Soto (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Marvin Moeller 1–0 Matias Soto
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08/26 Challenger Augsburg | 2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marvin Moeller
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/08 | Cezar Cretu Challenger Augsburg · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Matias Soto Challenger Augsburg · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 25/08 | Thomas Faurel Challenger Augsburg · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 18/08 | Dimitar Kuzmanov Challenger Sion · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/08 | Jan Kumstat Challenger Hamburg · Clay |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 15/08 | Matej Dodig Challenger Hamburg · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/08 | Niels McDonald Challenger Hamburg · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 12/08 | Raul Brancaccio Challenger Hamburg · Clay |
2-1 | 19-19 | W |
| 10/08 | Cezar Cretu Challenger Hamburg · Clay |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 10/07 | Hugo Gaston Challenger Braunschweig · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Matias Soto
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09 | Sandro Kopp Challenger Tulln · Clay |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 01/09 | Kilian Feldbausch Challenger Como · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Marvin Moeller Challenger Augsburg · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 25/08 | Oleksii Krutykh Challenger Augsburg · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 18/08 | Rudolf Molleker Challenger Prague · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 24/07 | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves M25 Sao Paulo |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 23/07 | Rafael Tosetto M25 Sao Paulo |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 22/07 | Gabriel P Tumasonis M25 Sao Paulo |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/07 | Nicolas Mejia Challenger Bogota · Clay |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 11/07 | Lorenzo Claverie Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marvin Moeller vs Matias Soto?
Our model gives 62% to Marvin Moeller, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.