Tennis · Challenger Seville · 09/09, 10:00
Prediction: Vilius Gaubas vs Pavel Lagutin
Team pages: Vilius Gaubas · Pavel Lagutin
Prediction summary
Winner
Vilius Gaubas
Pavel Lagutin
Estimated games
21.5
Recent form · 10 last
Vilius Gaubas
7-3 (W-L)
Pavel Lagutin
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Vilius Gaubas 1503 · Pavel Lagutin 1626
| Vilius Gaubas | Pavel Lagutin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 67% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pavel Lagutin (rating 1503 vs 1626).
- Pavel Lagutin is in better form: 90% recent wins.
Statistics
| Vilius Gaubas | Pavel Lagutin | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 90% |
| Win % · Clay | 43% (7) | 100% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1 | 1.8-0.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-11.1 | 11.9-7.8 |
| Aces | 3.6 | 1.2 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 70.7% | 69.4% |
| Break % | 38.9% | 45.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Vilius Gaubas
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08 | Harry Wendelken US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 19-20 | L |
| 26/08 | Marco Cecchinato US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/08 | Kilian Feldbausch US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 04/08 | Max Houkes Challenger Hagen · Clay |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 01/08 | Facundo Diaz Acosta Challenger San Marino · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 31/07 | Thiago Monteiro Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 30/07 | Genaro Alberto Olivieri Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/07 | Luka Pavlovic Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 21/07 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Estoril · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 13/07 | Jesper De Jong ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
Pavel Lagutin
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09 | Tiago Pereira Challenger Seville · Clay |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 06/09 | Mario Gonzalez Fernandez Challenger Seville · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 23/08 | Goncalo Marques M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 22/08 | Rodrigo Fernandes M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 21/08 | Mathieu Scaglia M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 20/08 | Tiago Silva M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 18/08 | Benjamin Pietri M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 14/08 | Philip Henning M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Rafael Izquierdo Luque M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 9-3 | W |
| 12/08 | Rodrigo Fernandes M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Vilius Gaubas vs Pavel Lagutin?
Our model gives 51% to Vilius Gaubas, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.