Tennis · Challenger Shanghai · 08/09, 09:00
Prediction: Luca Castelnuovo vs Chun Hsin Tseng
Team pages: Luca Castelnuovo · Chun Hsin Tseng
Prediction summary
Winner
Luca Castelnuovo
Chun Hsin Tseng
Estimated games
22.4
Recent form · 10 last
Luca Castelnuovo
5-5 (W-L)
Chun Hsin Tseng
9-1 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luca Castelnuovo 1512 · Chun Hsin Tseng 1560
| Luca Castelnuovo | Chun Hsin Tseng | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 57% |
| Market | 19% | 81% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chun Hsin Tseng (rating 1512 vs 1560).
- Luca Castelnuovo dominates on serve: 6.9 aces and 50.8% break avg.
Statistics
| Luca Castelnuovo | Chun Hsin Tseng | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 57% (7) | 75% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.2-1.1 | 1.6-0.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.5-12 | 11.9-9.4 |
| Aces | 6.9 | 2.7 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 0.9 |
| 1st serve % | 72.3% | 73.2% |
| Break % | 50.8% | 49.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luca Castelnuovo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09 | Tsung-Hao Huang Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 29/08 | Kuan-Shou Chen M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 28/08 | Yanki Erel M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 27/08 | Hiromasa Koyama M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 26/08 | Moerani Bouzige M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 19/07 | Alexander Vasilev Challenger Segovia · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Antoine Ghibaudo Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 09/07 | Max Basing Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 07/07 | Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 28/06 | Gabriel Ghetu Challenger Brasov · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Chun Hsin Tseng
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09 | Kasidit Samrej Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 04/09 | Fajing Sun Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/09 | Yosuke Watanuki Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 01/09 | Tianhui Zhang Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 22/08 | Jan Kumstat Challenger Prague · Clay |
1-2 | 10-17 | L |
| 21/08 | Norbert Gombos Challenger Prague · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/08 | Oleksii Krutykh Challenger Prague · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/08 | Juan Bautista Torres Challenger Prague · Clay |
2-1 | 15-12 | W |
| 18/08 | Hynek Barton Challenger Prague · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/08 | Vitaliy Sachko Challenger Hamburg · Clay |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luca Castelnuovo vs Chun Hsin Tseng?
Our model gives 70% to Chun Hsin Tseng, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.