Tennis · Challenger Seville · 07/09, 12:30
Prediction: Tiago Pereira vs Pavel Lagutin
Team pages: Tiago Pereira · Pavel Lagutin
Prediction summary
Winner
Tiago Pereira
Pavel Lagutin
Estimated games
22.3
Recent form · 10 last
Tiago Pereira
6-4 (W-L)
Pavel Lagutin
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Tiago Pereira 1520 · Pavel Lagutin 1628
| Tiago Pereira | Pavel Lagutin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 65% |
| Market | 41% | 59% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pavel Lagutin (rating 1520 vs 1628).
- Pavel Lagutin is in better form: 90% recent wins.
Statistics
| Tiago Pereira | Pavel Lagutin | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 90% |
| Win % · Clay | 67% (3) | 100% (1) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.1 | 1.8-0.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-11.9 | 11.5-7.4 |
| Aces | 3.3 | 1.1 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 74.5% | 68.7% |
| Break % | 42.3% | 45.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Tiago Pereira
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Thiago Cigarran Challenger Seville · Clay |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 02/09 | Gustavo Heide Challenger Porto · Clay |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 01/09 | Francisco Rocha Challenger Porto · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 26/08 | Niccolo Catini M25 Poznan |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 14/08 | Tristan McCormick M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
1-2 | 14-15 | L |
| 13/08 | Alberto Barroso Campos M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 12/08 | Rodrigo Leal M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 05/08 | Max Basing Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Vadym Ursu Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 02/08 | Oleg Prihodko M25 Koszalin |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
Pavel Lagutin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Mario Gonzalez Fernandez Challenger Seville · Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 23/08 | Goncalo Marques M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 22/08 | Rodrigo Fernandes M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 21/08 | Mathieu Scaglia M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 20/08 | Tiago Silva M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 18/08 | Benjamin Pietri M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 14/08 | Philip Henning M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Rafael Izquierdo Luque M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 9-3 | W |
| 12/08 | Rodrigo Fernandes M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 02/08 | Carlos Lopez Montagud M15 Xativa |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Tiago Pereira vs Pavel Lagutin?
Our model gives 62% to Pavel Lagutin, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.