Tennis · Challenger Shanghai · 07/09, 09:00
Prediction: Luca Castelnuovo vs Tsung-Hao Huang
Team pages: Luca Castelnuovo · Tsung-Hao Huang
Prediction summary
Winner
Luca Castelnuovo
Tsung-Hao Huang
Estimated games
21.3
Recent form · 10 last
Luca Castelnuovo
4-6 (W-L)
Tsung-Hao Huang
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Luca Castelnuovo
1–0
Tsung-Hao Huang
(1 last)
- 08 May2-0 12-5W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Luca Castelnuovo 1510 · Tsung-Hao Huang 1470
| Luca Castelnuovo | Tsung-Hao Huang | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 44% |
| Market | 65% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Luca Castelnuovo (rating 1510 vs 1470).
- Luca Castelnuovo dominates on serve: 6.1 aces and 49.1% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Luca Castelnuovo 1–0 Tsung-Hao Huang (1).
Statistics
| Luca Castelnuovo | Tsung-Hao Huang | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (6) | 40% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.3 | 0.8-1.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.7-13 | 8.4-9.7 |
| Aces | 6.1 | 2.9 |
| Double faults | 3.7 | 1.4 |
| 1st serve % | 69.6% | 63.6% |
| Break % | 49.1% | 36.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.3
H2H · Luca Castelnuovo 1 – 0 Tsung-Hao Huang (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Luca Castelnuovo 1–0 Tsung-Hao Huang
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/05/25 ITF M25 Baotou | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Luca Castelnuovo
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Kuan-Shou Chen M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 28/08 | Yanki Erel M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 27/08 | Hiromasa Koyama M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 26/08 | Moerani Bouzige M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 19/07 | Alexander Vasilev Challenger Segovia · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 14/07 | Antoine Ghibaudo Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 09/07 | Max Basing Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 07/07 | Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 28/06 | Gabriel Ghetu Challenger Brasov · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Franco Agamenone Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
Tsung-Hao Huang
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09 | Arjun Kadhe Challenger Shanghai · Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 30/08 | Fanming Meng Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 26/08 | Arthur Weber M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 20/08 | Shunsuke Mitsui M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 18/08 | Keisuke Saitoh M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 12/08 | Duckhee Lee M15 Tianjin |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 07/08 | Yuki Mochizuki M15 Tianjin |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 06/08 | Toshiki Karigyo M15 Tianjin |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 04/08 | Wen Bo Fan M15 Tianjin |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 13/07 | Abel Forger Challenger Bunschoten · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Luca Castelnuovo vs Tsung-Hao Huang?
Our model gives 61% to Luca Castelnuovo, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.