Tennis · Challenger Seville · 06/09, 14:00
Prediction: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Pavel Lagutin
Team pages: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez · Pavel Lagutin
Prediction summary
Winner
Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
Pavel Lagutin
Estimated games
20.4
Recent form · 10 last
Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
4-6 (W-L)
Pavel Lagutin
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
0–1
Pavel Lagutin
(1 last)
- 08 Aug0-2 9-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mario Gonzalez Fernandez 1504 · Pavel Lagutin 1648
| Mario Gonzalez Fernandez | Pavel Lagutin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 30% | 70% |
| Market | 25% | 75% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pavel Lagutin (rating 1504 vs 1648).
- Pavel Lagutin is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Mario Gonzalez Fernandez 0–1 Pavel Lagutin (1).
Statistics
| Mario Gonzalez Fernandez | Pavel Lagutin | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (8) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.1 | 1.8-0.3 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.6-11.1 | 11.5-7 |
| Aces | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 2 |
| 1st serve % | 67.4% | 70.2% |
| Break % | 42.1% | 47.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.4
H2H · Mario Gonzalez Fernandez 0 – 1 Pavel Lagutin (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Mario Gonzalez Fernandez 0–1 Pavel Lagutin
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/25 M25 Tauste | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mario Gonzalez Fernandez
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 25/08 | Mitchell Krueger Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 24/08 | Matt Kuhar Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 23/08 | Calum Puttergill Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 16/08 | Roger Pascual Ferra Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 06/08 | Aryan Shah M25 Tauste · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-18 | L |
| 05/08 | Ander Tarrio Ponte M25 Tauste · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 22/07 | Keegan Smith Challenger Segovia · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 20/07 | Miguel Tobon Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 13/07 | Dominik Palan Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Pavel Lagutin
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08 | Goncalo Marques M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 22/08 | Rodrigo Fernandes M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 21/08 | Mathieu Scaglia M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-1 | 16-10 | W |
| 20/08 | Tiago Silva M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 18/08 | Benjamin Pietri M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 14/08 | Philip Henning M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 13/08 | Rafael Izquierdo Luque M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 9-3 | W |
| 12/08 | Rodrigo Fernandes M25 Idanha-A-Nova |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 02/08 | Carlos Lopez Montagud M15 Xativa |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 01/08 | Eric Vanshelboim M15 Xativa |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mario Gonzalez Fernandez vs Pavel Lagutin?
Our model gives 73% to Pavel Lagutin, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.