Tennis · Challenger Shanghai · 08/09, 04:00
Prediction: Hayato Matsuoka vs Jake Delaney
Team pages: Hayato Matsuoka · Jake Delaney
Prediction summary
Winner
Hayato Matsuoka
Jake Delaney
Estimated games
21.1
Recent form · 10 last
Hayato Matsuoka
6-4 (W-L)
Jake Delaney
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Hayato Matsuoka
2–0
Jake Delaney
(2 last)
- 09 Feb2-0 12-8W
- 14 Nov2-0 12-8W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Hayato Matsuoka 1582 · Jake Delaney 1493
| Hayato Matsuoka | Jake Delaney | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 37% |
| Market | 75% | 25% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hayato Matsuoka (rating 1582 vs 1493).
- Jake Delaney dominates on serve: 7.9 aces and 41.6% break avg.
- Head-to-head: Hayato Matsuoka 2–0 Jake Delaney (2).
Statistics
| Hayato Matsuoka | Jake Delaney | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 0% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-0.8 | 1.4-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.8-10 | 11.5-9.9 |
| Aces | 4 | 7.9 |
| Double faults | 3.9 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 75.6% | 78.1% |
| Break % | 38.7% | 41.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.1
H2H · Hayato Matsuoka 2 – 0 Jake Delaney (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Hayato Matsuoka 2–0 Jake Delaney
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/02/26 Challenger Brisbane | 2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 14/11/25 Challenger Brisbane | 2-0 | 12-8 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Hayato Matsuoka
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Enzo Aguiard Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 16/08 | Mohamed Aziz Dougaz Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 15/08 | Khumoyun Sultanov Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 14/08 | Fajing Sun Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
| 12/08 | Takuya Kumasaka Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 10/08 | Koki Matsuda Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 31/07 | Jeffrey John Wolf Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 30/07 | Shintaro Mochizuki Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/07 | Yosuke Watanuki Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 28/07 | James Trotter Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Jake Delaney
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Koki Matsuda Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 26/08 | Hyeon Chung M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 01/08 | Moerani Bouzige M15 Brisbane |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 30/07 | Jeremy Zhang M15 Brisbane |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 29/07 | Joshua Charlton M15 Brisbane |
2-1 | 13-14 | W |
| 26/07 | Matthew Dellavedova M15 Brisbane |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 25/07 | Duje Markovina M15 Brisbane |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 24/07 | Taiki Takizawa M15 Brisbane |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 23/07 | Zachary Viiala M15 Brisbane |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/07 | Daisuke Sumizawa M15 Brisbane |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Hayato Matsuoka vs Jake Delaney?
Our model gives 69% to Hayato Matsuoka, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.