Tennis · Challenger Shanghai · 08/09, 04:00
Prediction: Elias Ymer vs Pavel Kotov
Team pages: Elias Ymer · Pavel Kotov
Prediction summary
Winner
Elias Ymer
Pavel Kotov
Estimated games
22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Elias Ymer
2-8 (W-L)
Pavel Kotov
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Elias Ymer
1–1
Pavel Kotov
(2 last)
- 13 May0-2 9-13L
- 16 Oct2-0 12-5W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Elias Ymer 1461 · Pavel Kotov 1502
| Elias Ymer | Pavel Kotov | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 58% | 42% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Pavel Kotov (rating 1461 vs 1502).
Statistics
| Elias Ymer | Pavel Kotov | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 33% (6) | 75% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.6-1.5 | 1.3-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.2-11.9 | 12.4-13.2 |
| Aces | 5.1 | 4.7 |
| Double faults | 2.5 | 2.2 |
| 1st serve % | 69.1% | 66.7% |
| Break % | 29.9% | 36.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5
H2H · Elias Ymer 1 – 1 Pavel Kotov (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Elias Ymer 1–1 Pavel Kotov
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/05/22 Challenger Bordeaux | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 16/10/21 ATP Moscow | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Elias Ymer
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08 | Cristian Garin US Open · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 24/08 | Franco Roncadelli US Open · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 19/08 | Daniil Glinka Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 17/08 | Paul Jubb Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 03/08 | Federico Cina Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 25/07 | Trevor Svajda ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 24/06 | Timofey Skatov Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Nikoloz Basilashvili Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
| 16/06 | Henry Searle Challenger Dublin · Grass |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 08/06 | Ugo Humbert ATP Hertogenbosch · Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Pavel Kotov
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07 | Daniel Elahi Galan Challenger Bonn · Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 16/06 | Franco Ribero Challenger Royan · Clay |
2-1 | 18-10 | W |
| 09/06 | Marco Trungelliti Challenger Lyon · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 01/06 | Guy Den Ouden Challenger Heilbronn · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 28/05 | Cezar Cretu Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
1-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 26/05 | Gauthier Onclin Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 21/04 | Mikhail Kukushkin Challenger Gwangju · Hard |
1-2 | 11-13 | L |
| 12/04 | Harry Wendelken Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 11/04 | Fajing Sun Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 10/04 | Ilia Simakin Challenger Wuning · Hard |
2-1 | 15-15 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Elias Ymer vs Pavel Kotov?
Our model gives 52% to Elias Ymer, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.