Tennis · Challenger Shanghai · 08/09, 04:00
Prediction: Bernard Tomic vs Akira Santillan
Team pages: Bernard Tomic · Akira Santillan
Prediction summary
Winner
Bernard Tomic
Akira Santillan
Estimated games
22.5
Recent form · 10 last
Bernard Tomic
3-7 (W-L)
Akira Santillan
3-7 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Bernard Tomic
1–1
Akira Santillan
(2 last)
- 15 Jan0-2 9-13L
- 16 Dec2-1 18-15W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bernard Tomic 1548 · Akira Santillan 1499
| Bernard Tomic | Akira Santillan | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 57% | 43% |
| Market | 66% | 34% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bernard Tomic (rating 1548 vs 1499).
Statistics
| Bernard Tomic | Akira Santillan | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 70% (10) | 50% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.5-1.1 | 1.1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.4-12.5 | 10.3-11.7 |
| Aces | 7.9 | 3.8 |
| Double faults | 3 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 72.6% | 66.5% |
| Break % | 35.6% | 44.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.5
H2H · Bernard Tomic 1 – 1 Akira Santillan (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Bernard Tomic 1–1 Akira Santillan
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/01/24 Challenger Nonthaburi | 0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 16/12/20 UTR Pro Tennis Series Brisbane | 2-1 | 18-15 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bernard Tomic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09 | Kasidit Samrej Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 01/09 | Masamichi Imamura Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 25/08 | Lloyd Harris US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 13/08 | Edward Winter Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 31/07 | Cameron Norrie ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 30/07 | Karen Khachanov ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 28/07 | Alex Hernandez ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 26/07 | Miguel Tobon ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 20/07 | Mark Lajal Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 19/07 | Spencer Johnson Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
Akira Santillan
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09 | Ilya Ivashka Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 01/09 | Omar Jasika Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/08 | Sanhui Shin M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Antoine Ghibaudo Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Digvijay Pratap Singh Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-1 | 13-14 | W |
| 22/07 | Mert Alkaya Challenger Segovia · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 21/07 | Alastair Gray Challenger Segovia · Hard |
2-1 | 14-11 | W |
| 18/07 | Chris Rodesch Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 17/07 | Izan Almazan Valiente Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 13/07 | Alejandro Lopez Escribano Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bernard Tomic vs Akira Santillan?
Our model gives 62% to Bernard Tomic, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.