Tennis · Challenger Shanghai · 06/09, 10:30
Prediction: Ren Nakamura vs Hanyi Liu
Team pages: Ren Nakamura · Hanyi Liu
Prediction summary
Winner
Ren Nakamura
Hanyi Liu
Estimated games
19.8
Recent form · 10 last
Ren Nakamura
1-9 (W-L)
Hanyi Liu
7-3 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Ren Nakamura
0–1
Hanyi Liu
(1 last)
- 07 Jan1-2 18-21L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ren Nakamura 1435 · Hanyi Liu 1532
| Ren Nakamura | Hanyi Liu | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 64% |
| Market | 14% | 86% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hanyi Liu (rating 1435 vs 1532).
- Hanyi Liu is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Ren Nakamura 0–1 Hanyi Liu (1).
Statistics
| Ren Nakamura | Hanyi Liu | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 20% (5) | 60% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.6-1.7 | 1.4-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 7.3-11.9 | 10.5-8.7 |
| Aces | 2.2 | 2.5 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 1.8 |
| 1st serve % | 56.9% | 69.4% |
| Break % | 46.2% | 46.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
19.8
H2H · Ren Nakamura 0 – 1 Hanyi Liu (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ren Nakamura 0–1 Hanyi Liu
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/01/19 ITF M15 Anning | 1-2 | 18-21 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ren Nakamura
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Azuma Visaya M15 Bali |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Kristjan Tamm M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 17/08 | Ryuki Matsuda M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 27/07 | Corban Crowther M15 Bali |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 26/07 | Diordan Macababbad M15 Bali Qual |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
| 22/07 | Keisuke Saitoh M15 Bali |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 20/07 | Corban Crowther M15 Bali |
2-1 | 9-9 | W |
| 08/07 | Taiyo Yamanaka M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 07/07 | Taketo Takamisawa M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-1 | 11-12 | W |
| 30/06 | Ryota Tanuma M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
Hanyi Liu
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09 | Fajing Sun Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 31/08 | Kaichi Uchida Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 27/08 | Chase Ferguson M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 26/08 | Xing Dao Chen M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 10/07 | Hoyoung Roh M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 09/07 | Jia Hu M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 08/07 | Kosuke Shibano M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 02/07 | Zhao Zhao M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 30/06 | Yuta Kawahashi M15 Wuning · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 12/06 | Kokoro Isomura M15 Maanshan · ~Hard |
1-2 | 6-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ren Nakamura vs Hanyi Liu?
Our model gives 76% to Hanyi Liu, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.