Tennis · Challenger Zhangjiagang · 03/09, 05:00
Prediction: Ilia Simakin vs Matthew Dellavedova
Team pages: Ilia Simakin · Matthew Dellavedova
Prediction summary
Winner
Ilia Simakin
Matthew Dellavedova
Estimated games
21.9
Recent form · 10 last
Ilia Simakin
6-4 (W-L)
Matthew Dellavedova
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ilia Simakin 1573 · Matthew Dellavedova 1641
| Ilia Simakin | Matthew Dellavedova | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 40% | 60% |
| Market | 65% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Matthew Dellavedova (rating 1573 vs 1641).
Statistics
| Ilia Simakin | Matthew Dellavedova | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 83% (6) | 80% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-1 | 1.7-0.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 14.1-12.5 | 11.7-6.6 |
| Aces | 6.6 | 2.8 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| 1st serve % | 68.8% | 70.4% |
| Break % | 31.2% | 51.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ilia Simakin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Denis Yevseyev Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 09/08 | Lucas Poullain Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 08/08 | Antoine Ghibaudo Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 07/08 | Florent Bax Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-1 | 18-11 | W |
| 05/08 | Fajing Sun Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 03/08 | Gabi Adrian Boitan Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 08/07 | Lautaro Midon Challenger Iasi · Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 07/07 | Tomas Barrios Vera Challenger Iasi · Clay |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 30/06 | Dimitar Kuzmanov Challenger Brasov · Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 29/06 | Maxime Janvier Challenger Brasov · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
Matthew Dellavedova
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08 | Kuan-Shou Chen M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 29/08 | Kasidit Samrej M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 28/08 | Kristjan Tamm M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/08 | Tai Leonard Sach M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 26/08 | Keisuke Saitoh M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 23/08 | Yu Hsiou Hsu M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 22/08 | Shunsuke Mitsui M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 21/08 | Tai Leonard Sach M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 20/08 | Hiromasa Koyama M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 20/08 | Jeffrey Hsu M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ilia Simakin vs Matthew Dellavedova?
Our model gives 54% to Ilia Simakin, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.