Tennis · Challenger Zhangjiagang · 03/09, 04:00
Prediction: Bernard Tomic vs Kasidit Samrej
Team pages: Bernard Tomic · Kasidit Samrej
Prediction summary
Winner
Bernard Tomic
Kasidit Samrej
Estimated games
23.4
Recent form · 10 last
Bernard Tomic
4-6 (W-L)
Kasidit Samrej
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bernard Tomic 1587 · Kasidit Samrej 1534
| Bernard Tomic | Kasidit Samrej | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 58% | 42% |
| Market | 71% | 29% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bernard Tomic (rating 1587 vs 1534).
- Bernard Tomic dominates on serve: 8.3 aces and 40.7% break avg.
- Note: Kasidit Samrej makes many double faults (7.1/match).
Statistics
| Bernard Tomic | Kasidit Samrej | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 80% (10) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.7-0.9 | 1.3-1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.6-12 | 11.8-10.8 |
| Aces | 8.3 | 6.4 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 7.1 |
| 1st serve % | 71.7% | 75% |
| Break % | 40.7% | 38.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bernard Tomic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Masamichi Imamura Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 25/08 | Lloyd Harris US Open · Hard |
1-2 | 11-17 | L |
| 13/08 | Edward Winter Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 31/07 | Cameron Norrie ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 30/07 | Karen Khachanov ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 28/07 | Alex Hernandez ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 26/07 | Miguel Tobon ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
| 20/07 | Mark Lajal Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 18-18 | W |
| 19/07 | Spencer Johnson Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 18/07 | Matthew Forbes Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
Kasidit Samrej
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09 | Hiroki Moriya Challenger Zhangjiagang · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 29/08 | Matthew Dellavedova M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 28/08 | Yan Cheng Chen M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 27/08 | Kai-I Wang M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/08 | Yuki Mochizuki M25 Taipei · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 13/08 | Sergey Fomin Challenger Astana · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 11/08 | Kokoro Isomura Challenger Astana · Hard |
2-1 | 17-11 | W |
| 04/08 | Egor Pleshivtsev M15 Astana |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 29/07 | Riku Takahata M15 Astana |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 09/07 | Makoto Ochi M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bernard Tomic vs Kasidit Samrej?
Our model gives 65% to Bernard Tomic, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.