Tennis · M25 Bagneres-de-Bigorre · 01/09, 10:00
Prediction: Alex Knaff vs Juan Carlos Aguilar
Team pages: Alex Knaff · Juan Carlos Aguilar
Prediction summary
Winner
Alex Knaff
Juan Carlos Aguilar
Estimated games
21.3
Recent form · 10 last
Alex Knaff
3-7 (W-L)
Juan Carlos Aguilar
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alex Knaff 1454 · Juan Carlos Aguilar 1420
| Alex Knaff | Juan Carlos Aguilar | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 55% | 45% |
| Market | 65% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Juan Carlos Aguilar makes many double faults (4.5/match).
Statistics
| Alex Knaff | Juan Carlos Aguilar | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 20% |
| Win % · Hard | 29% (7) | 0% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.7 | 0.6-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.8-13.9 | 7.4-10.9 |
| Aces | 3 | 1.7 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 4.5 |
| 1st serve % | 66% | 61.2% |
| Break % | 17.5% | 19.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.3
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alex Knaff
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Conor Gannon M15 Rognac |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 13/05 | Kyle Mckay UTR Pro Stirling · Hard |
1-2 | 18-18 | L |
| 12/05 | Nicola Cigna UTR Pro Stirling · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 07/05 | Millen Hurrion M25 Nottingham |
1-2 | 8-17 | L |
| 05/05 | Toby Martin M25 Nottingham |
2-1 | 13-14 | W |
| 22/04 | Emile Hudd M15 Singapore · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 17/04 | Koki Matsuda M15 Singapore · ~Hard |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
| 16/04 | Anton Shepp M15 Singapore · ~Hard |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 14/04 | Bill Chan M15 Singapore · ~Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 12/03 | Jurij Rodionov Challenger Cherbourg · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Juan Carlos Aguilar
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Yannis Batsabaken M25 Bagneres-de-Bigorre |
1-2 | 10-10 | L |
| 17/02 | Andres Martin Challenger Metepec · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 12/01 | Joaquin Aguillar Cardozo Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 11/01 | Thiago Cigarran Challenger Buenos Aires · Clay |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 25/11 | Christoph Negritu Challenger Temuco · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 18/11 | Juan Pablo Varillas Challenger Guayaquil · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 17/11 | Tomas Martinez Challenger Guayaquil · Clay |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 16/11 | Ignacio Carou Challenger Guayaquil · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 12/11 | Louis Wessels Challenger Drummondville · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 07/11 | Oskar Brostrom Poulsen ITF M25 Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alex Knaff vs Juan Carlos Aguilar?
Our model gives 60% to Alex Knaff, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.