Tennis · UTR Pro Miami Women · 04/09, 18:00
Prediction: Sofiia Nagornaia vs Raquel Gonzalez Vilar
Team pages: Sofiia Nagornaia · Raquel Gonzalez Vilar
Prediction summary
Winner
Sofiia Nagornaia
Raquel Gonzalez Vilar
Estimated games
18.5
Recent form · 10 last
Sofiia Nagornaia
3-7 (W-L)
Raquel Gonzalez Vilar
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sofiia Nagornaia 1439 · Raquel Gonzalez Vilar 1534
| Sofiia Nagornaia | Raquel Gonzalez Vilar | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 63% |
| Market | 9% | 91% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Raquel Gonzalez Vilar (rating 1439 vs 1534).
- Raquel Gonzalez Vilar is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Raquel Gonzalez Vilar makes many double faults (6.9/match).
Statistics
| Sofiia Nagornaia | Raquel Gonzalez Vilar | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 60% |
| Win % · Hard | 30% (10) | 100% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.6-1.4 | 1.2-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 6.8-9.8 | 10-8.1 |
| Aces | 0.8 | 2.8 |
| Double faults | 3.1 | 6.9 |
| 1st serve % | 54.4% | 72.5% |
| Break % | 40% | 42.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
18.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sofiia Nagornaia
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09 | Daria Volosova UTR Pro Miami Women · Hard |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 01/09 | Zoe Hitt UTR Pro Miami Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 31/08 | Sebastianna Scilipoti UTR Pro Miami Women · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 04/05 | Lina Glushko W50 Lopota · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 03/05 | Veronika Lutsenko W50 Lopota · ~Hard |
2-0 | 11-2 | W |
| 23/04 | Franziska Sziedat W15 Pretoria · ~Hard |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 21/04 | Valentina Khrebtova W15 Pretoria · ~Hard |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 15/04 | Franziska Sziedat W15 Pretoria · ~Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 10/03 | Aran Teixido Garcia W50 Heraklion · ~Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 09/03 | Ilinca Sagmar W50 Heraklion · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
Raquel Gonzalez Vilar
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09 | Zoe Hitt UTR Pro Miami Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 01/09 | Sebastianna Scilipoti UTR Pro Miami Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 31/08 | Daria Volosova UTR Pro Miami Women · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 06/07 | Anastasia Kulikova W50 Corroios-Seixal |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 05/07 | Kika Lima W50 Corroios-Seixal |
2-0 | 13-5 | W |
| 24/06 | Viktoria Morvayova W50 Palma del Rio · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Lucia Llinares Domingo W50 Palma del Rio · ~Clay |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 21/06 | Leire San Jose W50 Palma del Rio · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-0 | W |
| 16/06 | Vaishnavi Adkar W35 Tauste · ~Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 05/06 | Maileen Nuudi W15 Ontinyent · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sofiia Nagornaia vs Raquel Gonzalez Vilar?
Our model gives 79% to Raquel Gonzalez Vilar, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.