Tennis · W50 Leiria · 30/08, 13:30
Prediction: Amelia Rajecki vs Maria Toma
Team pages: Amelia Rajecki · Maria Toma
Prediction summary
Winner
Amelia Rajecki
Maria Toma
Estimated games
20.6
Recent form · 10 last
Amelia Rajecki
6-4 (W-L)
Maria Toma
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Amelia Rajecki 1585 · Maria Toma 1501
| Amelia Rajecki | Maria Toma | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 38% |
| Market | 78% | 22% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Amelia Rajecki (rating 1585 vs 1501).
- Amelia Rajecki dominates on serve: 6.7 aces and 49.8% break avg.
- Amelia Rajecki is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Note: Amelia Rajecki makes many double faults (5.8/match).
- Note: Maria Toma makes many double faults (4.4/match).
Statistics
| Amelia Rajecki | Maria Toma | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 100% (4) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.6 | 1.1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.2-9.3 | 10-9.6 |
| Aces | 6.7 | 0.9 |
| Double faults | 5.8 | 4.4 |
| 1st serve % | 72.3% | 61.4% |
| Break % | 49.8% | 43.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Amelia Rajecki
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Ella Mcdonald W35 Roehampton · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 07/08 | Brooke Black W35 Roehampton · ~Hard |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 06/08 | Hikaru Sato W35 Roehampton · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 05/08 | Sayaka Ishii W35 Roehampton · ~Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 02/08 | Vendula Valdmannova W50 Dublin |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 01/08 | Viktoria Hruncakova W50 Dublin |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 31/07 | Britt Du Pree W50 Dublin |
2-1 | 16-12 | W |
| 30/07 | Alicia Dudeney W50 Dublin |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 29/07 | Eliz Maloney W50 Dublin |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 14/07 | Victoria Allen W50 Nottingham |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Maria Toma
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08 | Alena Kovackova W50 Oldenzaal |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 24/08 | Sevil Yuldasheva W50 Oldenzaal |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 05/08 | Xinyu Gao W75 Ourense |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 03/08 | Esther Lopez Alcaraz W75 Ourense |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 02/08 | Aranai Martinez Quintana W75 Ourense |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 27/07 | Nagi Hanatani W75 Hechingen |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 22/07 | Neus Torner Sensano W50 Horb |
1-2 | 15-15 | L |
| 21/07 | Petra Sedlackova W50 Horb |
1-1 | 9-8 | W |
| 20/07 | Veena Mariam Nazar W50 Horb |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/06 | Michaela Bayerlova W50 Stuttgart-Vaihingen · ~Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Amelia Rajecki vs Maria Toma?
Our model gives 71% to Amelia Rajecki, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.