Tennis · Challenger Kingston · 27/08, 21:00
Prediction: Miguel Tobon vs Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez
Team pages: Miguel Tobon · Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez
Prediction summary
Winner
Miguel Tobon
Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez
Estimated games
23.2
Recent form · 10 last
Miguel Tobon
4-6 (W-L)
Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Miguel Tobon
0–1
Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez
(1 last)
- 06 Aug0-2 11-14L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Miguel Tobon 1483 · Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez 1524
| Miguel Tobon | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 56% |
| Market | 28% | 72% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez (rating 1483 vs 1524).
- Head-to-head: Miguel Tobon 0–1 Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez (1).
Statistics
| Miguel Tobon | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 43% (7) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.5 | 1.1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.2-13.4 | 11.5-10.6 |
| Aces | 3.3 | 3.9 |
| Double faults | 3.8 | 2.9 |
| 1st serve % | 71.8% | 71.3% |
| Break % | 49.6% | 26.3% |
Estimated total games (ours)
23.2
H2H · Miguel Tobon 0 – 1 Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Miguel Tobon 0–1 Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08/24 Challenger Bogota | 0-2 | 11-14 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Miguel Tobon
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08 | Juan Pablo Ficovich Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 25/08 | Pietro Orlando Fellin Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 17/08 | Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 16/08 | Lorenzo Claverie Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 26/07 | Bernard Tomic ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
1-2 | 17-18 | L |
| 20/07 | Mario Gonzalez Fernandez Challenger Segovia · Hard |
1-2 | 16-19 | L |
| 13/07 | Tiago Pereira Challenger Pozoblanco · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 30/06 | Facundo Diaz Acosta Challenger Milan · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Martin Krumich Challenger Targu Mures · Clay |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 15/06 | Ryan Seggerman Challenger Parma · Clay |
1-2 | 16-16 | L |
Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08 | Mario Gonzalez Fernandez Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 25/08 | Paul Jubb Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 21/08 | Sebastian Baez Challenger Cancun · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 20/08 | Tomas Barrios Vera Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 03/08 | Aidan Mayo Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 02/08 | Roger Pascual Ferra Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/07 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Sho Shimabukuro ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 07/07 | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves Challenger Bogota · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 03/07 | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves Challenger Quito · Clay |
1-2 | 18-16 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Miguel Tobon vs Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez?
Our model gives 65% to Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.