Tennis · M15 Mar Del Plata · 26/08, 15:00
Prediction: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Leonel Cesar Castro
Team pages: Gonzalo Villanueva · Leonel Cesar Castro
Prediction summary
Winner
Gonzalo Villanueva
Leonel Cesar Castro
Estimated games
20.4
Recent form · 10 last
Gonzalo Villanueva
6-4 (W-L)
Leonel Cesar Castro
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gonzalo Villanueva 1601 · Leonel Cesar Castro 1442
| Gonzalo Villanueva | Leonel Cesar Castro | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 71% | 29% |
| Market | 94% | 6% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gonzalo Villanueva (rating 1601 vs 1442).
- Gonzalo Villanueva is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Gonzalo Villanueva | Leonel Cesar Castro | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 78% (9) | 25% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.7 | 0.9-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.1-7.5 | 9.1-11.7 |
| Aces | 1.8 | 0 |
| Double faults | 1.7 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 62.2% | 60.5% |
| Break % | 49.4% | 33% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.4
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gonzalo Villanueva
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Joaquin Aguillar Cardozo M15 Asuncion · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 21/08 | Dakotah Bobo M15 Asuncion · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 20/08 | Bastian Malla M15 Asuncion · ~Clay |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 19/08 | Felipe De Dios M15 Asuncion · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 18/08 | Joao Vitor Scramin do Lago M15 Asuncion · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 15/08 | Joaquin Aguillar Cardozo M15 Asuncion · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 14/08 | Santiago De La Fuente M15 Asuncion · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 13/08 | Federico Aguilar Cardozo M15 Asuncion · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 12/08 | Nicolas Bruna M15 Asuncion · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 23/07 | Matteo Martineau Challenger Segovia · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
Leonel Cesar Castro
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08 | Fantino Alberca De Las Casas M15 Mar Del Plata |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 17/08 | Ignacio De Armas M15 Asuncion · ~Clay |
1-2 | 10-10 | L |
| 06/07 | Tomas Jordi Leston M15 San Salvador de Jujuy |
0-2 | 5-13 | L |
| 08/06 | Thiago Cigarran Challenger San Miguel de Tucuman · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 11/05 | Samuel Alejandro Linde Palacios Challenger Cordoba · Clay |
1-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 10/05 | Lautaro Agustin Falabella Challenger Cordoba · Clay |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 06/05 | Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi M25 Villa Maria · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 28/04 | Lucio Ratti M25 Lujan · ~Clay |
0-2 | 2-12 | L |
| 18/04 | Valentin Garay UTR Pro Cordoba · Clay |
1-2 | 11-16 | L |
| 17/04 | Nocolas A Jara Lozano UTR Pro Cordoba · Clay |
2-1 | 13-14 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gonzalo Villanueva vs Leonel Cesar Castro?
Our model gives 84% to Gonzalo Villanueva, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.