Tennis · M15 Champaign · 25/08, 22:00
Prediction: Shu Matsuoka vs Marko Mesarovic
Team pages: Shu Matsuoka · Marko Mesarovic
Prediction summary
Winner
Shu Matsuoka
Marko Mesarovic
Estimated games
20.9
Recent form · 10 last
Shu Matsuoka
2-8 (W-L)
Marko Mesarovic
5-5 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Shu Matsuoka 1493 · Marko Mesarovic 1495
| Shu Matsuoka | Marko Mesarovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 50% |
| Market | 46% | 54% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Shu Matsuoka | Marko Mesarovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (8) | 50% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.3 | 1-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.2-11.5 | 8.6-9.6 |
| Aces | 5.5 | 1 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 73% | 65% |
| Break % | 32% | 25.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Shu Matsuoka
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06 | Saki Tange M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
1-2 | 11-11 | L |
| 16/06 | Yusuke Kusuhara M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 11/06 | Naoya Honda M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
1-1 | 16-15 | W |
| 10/06 | Renta Tokuda M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 08/06 | Makoto Ochi M15 Tokyo · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 29/05 | Evan Zhu M15 Karuizawa · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 28/05 | Yusuke Kusuhara M15 Karuizawa · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 09/03 | Marc Polmans Challenger Phoenix · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 18/12 | Keegan Smith ITF M15 Tauranga · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 17/12 | Benjamin O'Connell ITF M15 Tauranga · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
Marko Mesarovic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08 | Nikita Filin M25 East Lansing |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 12/08 | Oliver Okonkwo M25 East Lansing |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 11/08 | Evan Burnett M25 East Lansing |
2-1 | 10-9 | W |
| 15/07 | Ozan Baris M25 Louisville |
0-2 | 6-11 | L |
| 07/07 | Evan Bynoe M25 Dallas |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 11/06 | Lorenzo Claverie Davis Cup |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 11/06 | Nicholas Gore Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 10/06 | Adrian Quiros Monterrey Davis Cup |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 05/06 | Oliver Bonding M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 04/06 | Alexander Petrov M15 Lakewood · ~Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Shu Matsuoka vs Marko Mesarovic?
Our model gives 52% to Marko Mesarovic, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.