Tennis · M15 Mar Del Plata · 25/08, 18:00

Prediction: Tobia Grandinetti vs Santiago De La Fuente

Team pages: Tobia Grandinetti · Santiago De La Fuente

Prediction summary

Winner

21% 79%

Tobia Grandinetti Santiago De La Fuente

Estimated games

Recent form · 10 last

Tobia Grandinetti 5-5 (W-L)

WLWLWLLWWL

Santiago De La Fuente 5-5 (W-L)

LLLWWWLWWL

Head-to-head

Tobia Grandinetti 0–1 Santiago De La Fuente (1 last)

06 Oct0-2 4-12L

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Tobia Grandinetti 1438 · Santiago De La Fuente 1539

	Tobia Grandinetti	Santiago De La Fuente
Our model	36%	64%
Market	9%	91%

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Match keys

Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Santiago De La Fuente (rating 1438 vs 1539).
Santiago De La Fuente is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Head-to-head: Tobia Grandinetti 0–1 Santiago De La Fuente (1).

Statistics

	Tobia Grandinetti	Santiago De La Fuente
Win %	30%	60%
Win % · Clay	25% (8)	67% (9)
Sets (G-P)	0.8-1.7	1.3-1
Games (G-P)	6.7-10.8	10.7-9.6
Aces	1.3	0.7
Double faults	3.7	1.5
1st serve %	58.4%	58.8%
Break %	45%	56.3%

Estimated total games (ours) 20

H2H · Tobia Grandinetti 0 – 1 Santiago De La Fuente (1)

Odds Bet365

110.00

21.03

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	10.00 → 10.00	Bet365 10.00
2	1.03 → 1.03	Bet365 1.03

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.1%

Time*	1	2
03:12 +26’	10.00	1.03

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Tobia Grandinetti 0–1 Santiago De La Fuente

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Date	Sets	Games	Res.
06/10/22 ITF M15 Villa Carlos Paz	0-2	4-12	L

Last 10 matches played

Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Tobia Grandinetti

LLLWL

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Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
04/08	Carl Emil Overbeck M25 Fano	0-2	7-12	L
03/08	Nicolo Toffanin M25 Fano	2-1	8-6	W
01/07	Tomasz Berkieta M15 Umag · ~Clay	1-2	11-13	L
29/06	Facundo Yunis M15 Umag · ~Clay	0-2	2-12	L
23/06	Giovanni Oradini M15 Bergamo · ~Clay	0-2	2-12	L
22/06	Tobia Costanzo Baragiola Mordini M15 Bergamo · ~Clay	2-1	9-10	W
09/06	Pietro Marino M15 Messina · ~Clay	0-2	6-12	L
08/06	Simone Macchione M15 Messina · ~Clay	2-1	10-9	W
01/06	Jacopo Borsoi M25 Caltanissetta · ~Clay	0-2	4-12	L
28/04	Julian Cundom M25 Lujan · ~Clay	1-2	8-10	L

Santiago De La Fuente

WLWWL

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Date	Opponent	Sets	Games	Res.
20/08	Maxwell Exsted M15 Asuncion · ~Clay	0-2	5-12	L
19/08	Mateo Del Pino M15 Asuncion · ~Clay	2-0	12-5	W
18/08	Corey Craig M15 Asuncion · ~Clay	2-0	12-6	W
14/08	Gonzalo Villanueva M15 Asuncion · ~Clay	0-2	7-12	L
13/08	Dakotah Bobo M15 Asuncion · ~Clay	2-1	13-11	W
12/08	Lorenzo Gagliardo M15 Asuncion · ~Clay	2-0	12-6	W
11/08	Alvaro Frutos Alonso M15 Asuncion · ~Clay	2-0	12-4	W
16/07	Fermin Tenti M15 Villa Constitucion	0-2	5-10	L
17/06	Matias Soto Challenger Asuncion · Clay	1-2	13-15	L
16/06	Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos Challenger Asuncion · Clay	2-1	16-15	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Tobia Grandinetti vs Santiago De La Fuente?

Our model gives 79% to Santiago De La Fuente, using surface Elo on clay.

What is the prediction based on?

On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.