Tennis · M25 Oldenzaal · 26/08, 10:00
Prediction: Matteo Covato vs Luca Wiedenmann
Team pages: Matteo Covato · Luca Wiedenmann
Prediction summary
Winner
Matteo Covato
Luca Wiedenmann
Estimated games
20.5
Recent form · 10 last
Matteo Covato
2-8 (W-L)
Luca Wiedenmann
6-4 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Matteo Covato 1385 · Luca Wiedenmann 1515
| Matteo Covato | Luca Wiedenmann | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 32% | 68% |
| Market | 11% | 89% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Luca Wiedenmann (rating 1385 vs 1515).
- Luca Wiedenmann is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| Matteo Covato | Luca Wiedenmann | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 0% | 60% |
| Win % · Clay | 0% (4) | 33% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.3-2 | 1.3-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 7.9-13 | 10-8.4 |
| Aces | 4.4 | 1.9 |
| Double faults | 2 | 1.1 |
| 1st serve % | 60.7% | 66.4% |
| Break % | 20.3% | 39% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.5
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Matteo Covato
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | Denis Yevseyev M25 Ueberlingen |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 11/08 | Adrien Berrut M25 Muttenz |
1-2 | 12-18 | L |
| 29/07 | Joshua Peck M15 Huamantla · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 21/07 | Oliver Sanders M15 Huamantla · ~Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 05/07 | Jesse Delaney Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Justin Schlageter M25 Marburg · ~Clay |
0-2 | 5-11 | L |
| 16/06 | Noah Karma M25 Klosters · ~Clay |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 09/06 | Jan Kumstat M25 Ceska Lipa · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 03/06 | Richard Antoni M15 Rosbach · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 20/05 | Dylan Salton M15 Gaborone · ~Hard |
1-2 | 16-14 | L |
Luca Wiedenmann
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | Sandro Kopp Challenger Sion · Clay |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 17/08 | Thiago Cigarran Challenger Sion · Clay |
1-2 | 13-14 | L |
| 16/08 | Timeo Gaillard Challenger Sion · Clay |
2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 13/08 | Ziga Sesko M15 Trier |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 12/08 | Jaron Held M15 Trier |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 17/07 | Sean Cuenin M25 Uriage |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 16/07 | Alessio Basile M25 Uriage |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 15/07 | Antonin Witz M25 Uriage |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/07 | Niccolo Baroni M15 Store |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 04/07 | Stefano D'Agostino M15 Store |
2-1 | 13-11 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Matteo Covato vs Luca Wiedenmann?
Our model gives 79% to Luca Wiedenmann, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.