Tennis · Challenger Kingston · 24/08, 17:00
Prediction: Alex Hernandez vs Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos
Team pages: Alex Hernandez · Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos
Prediction summary
Winner
Alex Hernandez
Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos
Estimated games
22.7
Recent form · 10 last
Alex Hernandez
5-5 (W-L)
Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos
9-1 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Alex Hernandez
1–0
Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos
(1 last)
- 01 Oct2-0 12-7W
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alex Hernandez 1467 · Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos 1584
| Alex Hernandez | Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 34% | 66% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos (rating 1467 vs 1584).
- Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos is in better form: 80% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Alex Hernandez 1–0 Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos (1).
- Note: Alex Hernandez makes many double faults (4.1/match).
Statistics
| Alex Hernandez | Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 80% |
| Win % · Hard | 40% (5) | 100% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.4 | 1.7-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.9-12.4 | 14.5-12.1 |
| Aces | 2.6 | 4.8 |
| Double faults | 4.1 | 2.4 |
| 1st serve % | 62.3% | 70.8% |
| Break % | 33.3% | 38.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.7
H2H · Alex Hernandez 1 – 0 Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alex Hernandez 1–0 Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10/24 ITF M25 Luque | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alex Hernandez
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08 | Alan Magadan Challenger Cancun · Hard |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 02/08 | Millen Hurrion Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 28/07 | Bernard Tomic ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 27/07 | Alan Magadan ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 26/07 | Nicolas Mejia ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 07/07 | Nick Hardt Challenger Bogota · Clay |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 30/06 | Juan Manuel La Serna Challenger Quito · Clay |
1-2 | 10-16 | L |
| 22/06 | Juan Bautista Torres Challenger Piracicaba · Clay |
1-2 | 8-15 | L |
| 16/06 | Guido Ivan Justo Challenger Asuncion · Clay |
0-2 | 1-12 | L |
| 14/06 | Nicolas Oliveira M15 Brasilia |
2-0 | 11-8 | W |
Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08 | Miguel Tobon Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 16/08 | Matt Kuhar Challenger Kingston · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 08/08 | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves M25 Londrina |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 07/08 | Carlos Maria Zarate M25 Londrina |
2-1 | 17-18 | W |
| 06/08 | Salvador Price M25 Londrina |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 05/08 | Nicolas Zanellato M25 Londrina |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 04/08 | Wilson Leite M25 Londrina |
2-1 | 15-9 | W |
| 31/07 | Mateus Alves M15 Sao Paulo |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 30/07 | Nicolas Oliveira M15 Sao Paulo |
2-1 | 18-15 | W |
| 29/07 | Hernando Jose Escurra Isnardi M15 Sao Paulo |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alex Hernandez vs Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos?
Our model gives 52% to Paulo Andre Saraiva Dos Santos, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.