Tennis · Challenger Kingston · 23/08, 21:30
Prediction: Aidan Mayo vs Joao Goncalves
Team pages: Aidan Mayo
Prediction summary
Winner
Aidan Mayo
Joao Goncalves
Estimated games
22.8
Recent form · 10 last
Aidan Mayo
6-4 (W-L)
Joao Goncalves
2-8 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Aidan Mayo 1532 · Joao Goncalves 1450
| Aidan Mayo | Joao Goncalves | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 62% | 38% |
| Market | 86% | 14% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aidan Mayo (rating 1532 vs 1450).
- Aidan Mayo is in better form: 60% recent wins.
- Note: Joao Goncalves makes many double faults (4.3/match).
Statistics
| Aidan Mayo | Joao Goncalves | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 30% |
| Win % · Hard | 60% (10) | – |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.4-0.9 | 1.1-1.6 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.1-10.6 | 11.8-12.5 |
| Aces | 6.4 | 2.2 |
| Double faults | 3.5 | 4.3 |
| 1st serve % | 78% | 65.3% |
| Break % | 36.9% | 43.5% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.8
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Aidan Mayo
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Timo Legout Challenger Kingston · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 12/08 | Stefan Kozlov Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
1-2 | 12-17 | L |
| 10/08 | Tristan Boyer Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 09/08 | Ryan Dickerson Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/08 | Rei Sakamoto Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 03/08 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 02/08 | Christian Langmo Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-1 | 19-15 | W |
| 29/07 | James Duckworth ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 27/07 | Roger Pascual Ferra ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 26/07 | Evan King ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Joao Goncalves
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/05 | Adhithya Ganesan M25 Pensacola · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 07/05 | Ryan Colby M15 Vero Beach · ~Clay |
1-2 | 15-16 | L |
| 06/05 | Youssef Kadiri Hassani M15 Vero Beach · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/04 | Matthew Segura M15 Orange Park · ~Clay |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 29/04 | Christian Langmo M15 Orange Park · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
| 23/04 | Bastian Malla M15 Orlando · ~Clay |
1-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 22/04 | Pedro Rodenas M15 Orlando · ~Clay |
2-1 | 14-10 | W |
| 14/04 | Adam Lynch M15 Orlando · ~Clay |
1-2 | 9-12 | L |
| 05/04 | Daniel Antonio Nunez Challenger Campinas · Clay |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 29/03 | Conner Huertas Del Pino Challenger Sao Leopoldo · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Aidan Mayo vs Joao Goncalves?
Our model gives 75% to Aidan Mayo, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.