Tennis · Challenger Cancun · 23/08, 02:30
Prediction: Sebastian Baez vs Lloyd Harris
Team pages: Sebastian Baez · Lloyd Harris
Prediction summary
Winner
Sebastian Baez
Lloyd Harris
Estimated games
22.3
Recent form · 10 last
Sebastian Baez
6-4 (W-L)
Lloyd Harris
8-2 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Sebastian Baez
0–1
Lloyd Harris
(1 last)
- 25 Aug0-3 12-19L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sebastian Baez 1529 · Lloyd Harris 1637
| Sebastian Baez | Lloyd Harris | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 65% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lloyd Harris (rating 1529 vs 1637).
- Lloyd Harris dominates on serve: 8 aces and 55.8% break avg.
- Lloyd Harris is in better form: 90% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Sebastian Baez 0–1 Lloyd Harris (1).
Statistics
| Sebastian Baez | Lloyd Harris | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 90% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (6) | 90% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.1 | 1.9-0.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.7-11.3 | 13.8-9.2 |
| Aces | 1.9 | 8 |
| Double faults | 2.3 | 1.9 |
| 1st serve % | 66.2% | 78.7% |
| Break % | 41.9% | 55.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.3
H2H · Sebastian Baez 0 – 1 Lloyd Harris (1)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Sebastian Baez 0–1 Lloyd Harris
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| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08/25 US Open | 0-3 | 12-19 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sebastian Baez
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Coleman Wong Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 21/08 | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 16/08 | Learner Tien ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 14/08 | Grigor Dimitrov ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 05/08 | Zizou Bergs ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 04/08 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 23/07 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 22/07 | Arthur Rinderknech ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 21/07 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 17/07 | Andrey Rublev ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
Lloyd Harris
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08 | Vit Kopriva Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 20/08 | Darwin Blanch Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 19/08 | Laslo Djere Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/08 | Abedallah Shelbayh Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 16/08 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 15/08 | Daniel Milavsky Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-1 | 18-13 | W |
| 14/08 | Harry Wendelken Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-1 | 18-14 | W |
| 14/08 | Mees Rottgering Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 12/08 | Andrew Fenty Challenger Brownsburg · Hard |
2-0 | 13-7 | W |
| 05/08 | Dusan Lajovic Challenger Lexington · Hard |
1-2 | 13-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sebastian Baez vs Lloyd Harris?
Our model gives 52% to Lloyd Harris, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.