Tennis · Challenger Cancun · 21/08, 01:30
Prediction: Sebastian Baez vs Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez
Team pages: Sebastian Baez · Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez
Prediction summary
Winner
Sebastian Baez
Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez
Estimated games
22.2
Recent form · 10 last
Sebastian Baez
5-5 (W-L)
Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Sebastian Baez 1513 · Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez 1499
| Sebastian Baez | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 48% |
| Market | 65% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Sebastian Baez | Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (4) | 50% (6) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.2 | 1.1-1.2 |
| Games (G-P) | 11.1-11.9 | 12-10.9 |
| Aces | 1.7 | 4.1 |
| Double faults | 1.9 | 3 |
| 1st serve % | 64.8% | 71.6% |
| Break % | 48.1% | 31.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Sebastian Baez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Learner Tien ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 14/08 | Grigor Dimitrov ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 13-13 | W |
| 05/08 | Zizou Bergs ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 04/08 | Mattia Bellucci ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 23/07 | Yannick Hanfmann ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 22/07 | Arthur Rinderknech ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-1 | 15-16 | W |
| 21/07 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Kitzbuhel · Clay |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 17/07 | Andrey Rublev ATP Bastad · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 16/07 | Jesper De Jong ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 14/07 | Max Dahlin ATP Bastad · Clay |
2-1 | 16-11 | W |
Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08 | Tomas Barrios Vera Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 03/08 | Aidan Mayo Challenger Lexington · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 02/08 | Roger Pascual Ferra Challenger Lexington · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 30/07 | Denis Shapovalov ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Sho Shimabukuro ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-1 | 19-14 | W |
| 07/07 | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves Challenger Bogota · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 03/07 | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves Challenger Quito · Clay |
1-2 | 18-16 | L |
| 02/07 | Segundo Goity Zapico Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/06 | Bruno Fernandez Challenger Quito · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 27/04 | Mees Rottgering M25 Xalapa · ~Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Sebastian Baez vs Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez?
Our model gives 59% to Sebastian Baez, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.