Tennis · Challenger Cancun · 20/08, 21:00
Prediction: Henrique Rocha vs Hubert Hurkacz
Team pages: Henrique Rocha · Hubert Hurkacz
Prediction summary
Winner
Henrique Rocha
Hubert Hurkacz
Estimated games
24.2
Recent form · 10 last
Henrique Rocha
3-7 (W-L)
Hubert Hurkacz
8-2 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Henrique Rocha 1475 · Hubert Hurkacz 1540
| Henrique Rocha | Hubert Hurkacz | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 59% |
| Market | 19% | 81% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hubert Hurkacz (rating 1475 vs 1540).
- Hubert Hurkacz is in better form: 70% recent wins.
Statistics
| Henrique Rocha | Hubert Hurkacz | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 70% |
| Win % · Hard | 50% (4) | 60% (5) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.9-1.4 | 2-0.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 10.8-12 | 16.1-13 |
| Aces | 3.7 | 15 |
| Double faults | 3.6 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 66% | 82.7% |
| Break % | 38.9% | 39.8% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.2
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Henrique Rocha
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08 | Seong Chan Hong Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/08 | Nicolas Mejia ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-17 | L |
| 13/08 | Marcos Giron ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 01/08 | Martin Damm ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 20/07 | Pedro Martinez ATP Estoril · Clay |
0-2 | 10-14 | L |
| 13/07 | Damir Dzumhur ATP Umag · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Nicolas Mejia Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 15/06 | Christopher O'Connell Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 12/06 | Darwin Blanch Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
1-2 | 15-14 | L |
| 10/06 | Charles Broom Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
Hubert Hurkacz
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Tommy Paul ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 14-18 | L |
| 14/08 | Sho Shimabukuro ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 07/08 | Botic Van De Zandschulp ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 17-17 | L |
| 05/08 | Alejandro Tabilo ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 04/08 | Marcos Giron ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 03/07 | Tommy Paul Wimbledon · Grass |
3-1 | 24-19 | W |
| 01/07 | Sebastian Ofner Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-14 | W |
| 29/06 | Casper Ruud Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 19-12 | W |
| 17/06 | Daniel Altmaier ATP Halle · Grass |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 16/06 | Andrey Rublev ATP Halle · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Henrique Rocha vs Hubert Hurkacz?
Our model gives 71% to Hubert Hurkacz, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.