Tennis · Challenger Cancun · 20/08, 21:00
Prediction: Roman Safiullin vs Stan Wawrinka
Team pages: Roman Safiullin · Stan Wawrinka
Prediction summary
Winner
Roman Safiullin
Stan Wawrinka
Estimated games
29.6
Recent form · 10 last
Roman Safiullin
8-2 (W-L)
Stan Wawrinka
4-6 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Roman Safiullin
1–1
Stan Wawrinka
(2 last)
- 27 Sept2-0 12-7W
- 17 Aug1-2 8-16L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Roman Safiullin 1576 · Stan Wawrinka 1442
| Roman Safiullin | Stan Wawrinka | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 68% | 32% |
| Market | 65% | 35% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Roman Safiullin (rating 1576 vs 1442).
- Roman Safiullin is in better form: 80% recent wins.
Statistics
| Roman Safiullin | Stan Wawrinka | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 80% | 30% |
| Win % · Grass | 78% (9) | 0% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 2.2-1.1 | 1-1.8 |
| Games (G-P) | 18.2-15.7 | 14.6-16 |
| Aces | 7 | 9.8 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 3.4 |
| 1st serve % | 75.2% | 74.9% |
| Break % | 36.4% | 28.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
29.6
H2H · Roman Safiullin 1 – 1 Stan Wawrinka (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Roman Safiullin 1–1 Stan Wawrinka
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/24 ATP Beijing | 2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 17/08/20 Challenger Prague | 1-2 | 8-16 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Roman Safiullin
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | Sebastian Ofner Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 05/07 | Novak Djokovic Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 18-22 | L |
| 03/07 | Joao Fonseca Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-9 | W |
| 01/07 | Botic Van De Zandschulp Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 26-21 | W |
| 29/06 | Andrey Rublev Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 28-26 | W |
| 25/06 | Jerome Kym Wimbledon · Grass |
3-2 | 27-28 | W |
| 24/06 | Kimmer Coppejans Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 14-11 | W |
| 22/06 | James McCabe Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 18/06 | Zhizhen Zhang Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
1-2 | 14-19 | L |
| 16/06 | August Holmgren Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Stan Wawrinka
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08 | Dalibor Svrcina Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 21/07 | Roman Andres Burruchaga ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 14/07 | Jaime Faria ATP Gstaad · Clay |
1-2 | 15-18 | L |
| 30/06 | Matteo Berrettini Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 25-27 | L |
| 07/06 | Arthur Rinderknech Bonmont Tennis Masters · ~Grass |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 05/06 | Corentin Moutet Bonmont Tennis Masters · ~Grass |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 25/05 | Jesper De Jong French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 16-21 | L |
| 20/05 | Alex Michelsen ATP Geneva · Clay |
0-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 18/05 | Raul Brancaccio ATP Geneva · Clay |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 04/05 | Stefano Travaglia ATP Rome · Clay |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Roman Safiullin vs Stan Wawrinka?
Our model gives 66% to Roman Safiullin, using surface Elo on grass.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (grass) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.