Tennis · Challenger Cancun · 19/08, 03:30
Prediction: Alan Magadan vs Rio Noguchi
Team pages: Alan Magadan · Rio Noguchi
Prediction summary
Winner
Alan Magadan
Rio Noguchi
Estimated games
22.6
Recent form · 10 last
Alan Magadan
4-6 (W-L)
Rio Noguchi
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alan Magadan 1525 · Rio Noguchi 1517
| Alan Magadan | Rio Noguchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 49% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Statistics
| Alan Magadan | Rio Noguchi | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 50% |
| Win % · Hard | 63% (8) | 63% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.1 | 1.1-1.4 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.6-11.3 | 11.5-11.6 |
| Aces | 5.5 | 1.8 |
| Double faults | 2.9 | 1.5 |
| 1st serve % | 73.3% | 59.5% |
| Break % | 43.7% | 49% |
Estimated total games (ours)
22.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alan Magadan
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | David Jorda Sanchis Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 27/07 | Alex Hernandez ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 26/07 | Garrett Johns ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
2-1 | 14-8 | W |
| 22/07 | Michael Zheng Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 21/07 | Stefan Kozlov Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 20/07 | Aidan Mayo Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-1 | 17-18 | W |
| 19/07 | Owen Demuth Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 12/07 | Benjamin Thomas George Challenger Granby · Hard |
1-2 | 14-14 | L |
| 08/07 | Matias Soto Challenger Bogota · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 06/07 | Johan Alexander Rodriguez Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 14-10 | W |
Rio Noguchi
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08 | Luis Carlos Alvarez Valdes Challenger Cancun · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 24/07 | Charles Broom Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 23/07 | Keegan Rice Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 15-10 | W |
| 21/07 | Braden Shick Challenger Winnipeg · Hard |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 18/07 | Mark Lajal Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 15/07 | Dhakshineswar Suresh Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 13/07 | Charles Broom Challenger Lincoln · Hard |
2-1 | 17-13 | W |
| 08/07 | Andre Ilagan Challenger Newport · Grass |
1-2 | 14-16 | L |
| 01/07 | Alex Martinez Challenger Cary · Hard |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 22/06 | Luca Nardi Wimbledon · Grass |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alan Magadan vs Rio Noguchi?
Our model gives 51% to Alan Magadan, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.