Tennis · M15 Kursumlijska Banja · 18/08, 09:00
Prediction: Mario Arce Fernandez vs Ognjen Jagrovic
Team pages: Mario Arce Fernandez
Prediction summary
Winner
Mario Arce Fernandez
Ognjen Jagrovic
Estimated games
20.6
Recent form · 10 last
Mario Arce Fernandez
4-6 (W-L)
Ognjen Jagrovic
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mario Arce Fernandez 1483 · Ognjen Jagrovic 1415
| Mario Arce Fernandez | Ognjen Jagrovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 87% | 13% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mario Arce Fernandez (rating 1483 vs 1415).
- Mario Arce Fernandez is in better form: 50% recent wins.
Statistics
| Mario Arce Fernandez | Ognjen Jagrovic | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 50% | 20% |
| Win % · Clay | 33% (3) | 13% (8) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.1-1.1 | 0.5-1.7 |
| Games (G-P) | 9.7-9.7 | 8.4-11.8 |
| Aces | 1.5 | 0 |
| Double faults | 2.2 | 3.7 |
| 1st serve % | 68% | 56% |
| Break % | 40.2% | 31% |
Estimated total games (ours)
20.6
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mario Arce Fernandez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07 | Carlos Lopez Montagud M15 Xativa |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Filippo Mazzola M15 Xativa |
2-0 | 10-6 | W |
| 28/07 | Xavier Ferrer Mateo M15 Xativa |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 23/07 | Pedro Rodenas M25 Denia |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 22/07 | Pablo Martinez Gomez M25 Denia |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 21/07 | Edouard Villoslada M25 Denia |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/07 | Andrey Chepelev M25 Gandia |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 08/07 | Anton Arzhankin M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 01/07 | Marcel Zielinski M15 Getxo · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 29/06 | Luis Garcia Paez M15 Getxo · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-6 | W |
Ognjen Jagrovic
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/05 | Pablo Aunion M25 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 17/01 | Bence Boros UTR Pro Beograd · Clay |
1-2 | 9-17 | L |
| 05/12 | Joshua Oakley UTR Pro Beograd · Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 03/12 | Obrad Markovski UTR Pro Beograd · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 02/12 | Semen Pankin UTR Pro Beograd · Clay |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 19/11 | John Hallquist Lithen M25 Antalya · ~Hard |
0-2 | 5-12 | L |
| 18/11 | Alessio Basile M25 Antalya · ~Hard |
2-1 | 12-11 | W |
| 04/10 | Marko Maric UTR Pro Beograd · Clay |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 03/10 | Tomas Farjat UTR Pro Beograd · Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 02/10 | Valentin Guadagno UTR Pro Beograd · Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mario Arce Fernandez vs Ognjen Jagrovic?
Our model gives 74% to Mario Arce Fernandez, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.