Tennis · M15 Kursumlijska Banja · 26/08, 10:00
Prediction: Mario Arce Fernandez vs Boris Butulija
Team pages: Mario Arce Fernandez · Boris Butulija
Prediction summary
Winner
Mario Arce Fernandez
Boris Butulija
Estimated games
21
Recent form · 10 last
Mario Arce Fernandez
5-5 (W-L)
Boris Butulija
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mario Arce Fernandez 1508 · Boris Butulija 1436
| Mario Arce Fernandez | Boris Butulija | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 60% | 40% |
| Market | 59% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mario Arce Fernandez (rating 1508 vs 1436).
- Mario Arce Fernandez is in better form: 60% recent wins.
Statistics
| Mario Arce Fernandez | Boris Butulija | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 60% | 30% |
| Win % · Clay | 67% (3) | 30% (10) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1 | 0.6-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 10-9.2 | 8.3-12 |
| Aces | 1.1 | 3.9 |
| Double faults | 2.8 | 3.2 |
| 1st serve % | 66.1% | 62.6% |
| Break % | 48% | 30.4% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mario Arce Fernandez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08 | Ognjen Jagrovic M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 19/08 | Dmitry Bessonov M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 18/08 | Ognjen Jagrovic M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 8-8 | W |
| 30/07 | Carlos Lopez Montagud M15 Xativa |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Filippo Mazzola M15 Xativa |
2-0 | 10-6 | W |
| 28/07 | Xavier Ferrer Mateo M15 Xativa |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 23/07 | Pedro Rodenas M25 Denia |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 22/07 | Pablo Martinez Gomez M25 Denia |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 21/07 | Edouard Villoslada M25 Denia |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 15/07 | Andrey Chepelev M25 Gandia |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
Boris Butulija
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08 | Anton Arzhankin M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 0-10 | L |
| 05/08 | Walid Ahouda M25 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 3-12 | L |
| 29/07 | Niksa Arsic M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 15/07 | Pierre Delage M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 02/07 | Timofei Derepasko M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 01/07 | Wishaya Trongcharoenchaikul M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
| 25/06 | Branko Djuric M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 24/06 | Vuk Pantic Crncevic M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 18/06 | Simeon Stankovic M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 17/06 | Nicolas Bruna M15 Kursumlijska Banja · ~Clay |
2-1 | 19-17 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mario Arce Fernandez vs Boris Butulija?
Our model gives 59% to Mario Arce Fernandez, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.