Tennis · M25 Santander · 19/08, 10:00
Prediction: Yaroslav Demin vs Carles Hernandez
Team pages: Yaroslav Demin · Carles Hernandez
Prediction summary
Winner
Yaroslav Demin
Carles Hernandez
Estimated games
21.4
Recent form · 10 last
Yaroslav Demin
3-7 (W-L)
Carles Hernandez
5-5 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Yaroslav Demin
1–1
Carles Hernandez
(2 last)
- 21 Nov2-0 12-6W
- 06 Dec0-2 6-13L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Yaroslav Demin 1473 · Carles Hernandez 1554
| Yaroslav Demin | Carles Hernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 50% | 50% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Carles Hernandez (rating 1473 vs 1554).
- Carles Hernandez is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Yaroslav Demin makes many double faults (4.2/match).
Statistics
| Yaroslav Demin | Carles Hernandez | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 30% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 43% (7) | 100% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 0.7-1.4 | 1.6-0.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 8.4-10.4 | 13.4-10.4 |
| Aces | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Double faults | 4.2 | 2.6 |
| 1st serve % | 60.6% | 62.8% |
| Break % | 41.4% | 51.1% |
Estimated total games (ours)
21.4
H2H · Yaroslav Demin 1 – 1 Carles Hernandez (2)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Yaroslav Demin 1–1 Carles Hernandez
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/11/25 ITF M15 Alcala De Henares | 2-0 | 12-6 | W |
| 06/12/20 M15 Torello | 0-2 | 6-13 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Yaroslav Demin
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Sidharth Rawat Challenger Istanbul · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 19/07 | Constantin Bittoun Kouzmine Challenger Segovia · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 13/06 | Andrey Chepelev M25 Kiseljak · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 12/06 | Andrej Nedic M25 Kiseljak · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 10/06 | Younes Lalami Laaroussi M25 Kiseljak · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 13/05 | Esteban Talavera Cortes M25 Vic |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 07/05 | Alejo Sanchez Quilez M25 Sabadell · ~Clay |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 06/05 | Ferdinand Livet Novkirichka M25 Sabadell · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-2 | W |
| 04/05 | Daniel Jade M25 Sabadell · ~Clay |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 02/04 | Jonas Forejtek Challenger Menorca · Clay |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
Carles Hernandez
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Carlos Lopez Montagud M15 Xativa |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 31/07 | Miguel Angel Machado M15 Xativa |
2-0 | 12-1 | W |
| 30/07 | Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento M15 Xativa |
2-0 | 13-9 | W |
| 29/07 | Adam Lynch M15 Xativa |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 22/07 | Reda Bennani M25 Denia |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 15/07 | Albert Pedrico Kravtsov M25 Gandia |
1-2 | 17-19 | L |
| 05/07 | Oscar Jose Gutierrez M15 Getxo · ~Clay |
2-1 | 15-14 | W |
| 04/07 | Ignacio Parisca Romera M15 Getxo · ~Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 03/07 | Marcel Zielinski M15 Getxo · ~Clay |
2-1 | 14-6 | W |
| 01/07 | Rafael Ymer M15 Getxo · ~Clay |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Yaroslav Demin vs Carles Hernandez?
Our model gives 55% to Carles Hernandez, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.