Tennis · Challenger Quebec City · 19/08, 16:00
Prediction: Francesco Maestrelli vs Alexei Popyrin
Team pages: Francesco Maestrelli · Alexei Popyrin
Prediction summary
Winner
Francesco Maestrelli
Alexei Popyrin
Estimated games
24.9
Recent form · 10 last
Francesco Maestrelli
4-6 (W-L)
Alexei Popyrin
3-7 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Francesco Maestrelli 1446 · Alexei Popyrin 1427
| Francesco Maestrelli | Alexei Popyrin | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 47% |
| Market | 28% | 72% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Note: Francesco Maestrelli makes many double faults (5.3/match).
Statistics
| Francesco Maestrelli | Alexei Popyrin | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 20% | 20% |
| Win % · Clay | 33% (6) | 0% (2) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1-1.7 | 0.7-1.9 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.1-14.5 | 10.8-14 |
| Aces | 17.2 | 8.1 |
| Double faults | 5.3 | 3.6 |
| 1st serve % | 70.6% | 70.9% |
| Break % | 38% | 24.6% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24.9
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Francesco Maestrelli
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08 | Bu Yunchaokete ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 30/07 | Juan Pablo Varillas Challenger San Marino · Clay |
1-2 | 15-17 | L |
| 28/07 | Lukas Neumayer Challenger San Marino · Clay |
2-0 | 12-4 | W |
| 30/06 | Ognjen Milic Challenger Brasov · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 22/06 | Max Basing Wimbledon · Grass |
1-2 | 16-17 | L |
| 15/06 | Alexis Galarneau Challenger Dublin · Grass |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 09/06 | Arthur Gea Challenger Ilkley · Grass |
1-2 | 13-16 | L |
| 26/05 | Kimmer Coppejans Challenger Chisinau · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 20/05 | Roberto Carballes Baena French Open · Clay |
1-2 | 12-14 | L |
| 19/05 | Rio Noguchi French Open · Clay |
2-1 | 16-14 | W |
Alexei Popyrin
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08 | Titouan Droguet ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 08/08 | Thiago Agustin Tirante ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
| 05/08 | Raphael Collignon ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 04/08 | Roman Andres Burruchaga ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 29/07 | Andy Andrade Challenger Vancouver · Hard |
1-2 | 12-16 | L |
| 30/06 | Jiri Lehecka Wimbledon · Grass |
0-3 | 10-18 | L |
| 22/06 | Jan Choinski ATP Eastbourne · Grass |
1-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 16/06 | Raphael Collignon ATP Halle · Grass |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 26/05 | Zachary Svajda French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 20-23 | L |
| 21/05 | Casper Ruud ATP Geneva · Clay |
0-2 | 7-12 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Francesco Maestrelli vs Alexei Popyrin?
Our model gives 61% to Alexei Popyrin, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.