Tennis · Challenger Quebec City · 19/08, 16:00
Prediction: Jacob Fearnley vs Mackenzie McDonald
Team pages: Jacob Fearnley · Mackenzie McDonald
Prediction summary
Winner
Jacob Fearnley
Mackenzie McDonald
Estimated games
24
Recent form · 10 last
Jacob Fearnley
6-4 (W-L)
Mackenzie McDonald
4-6 (W-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Jacob Fearnley 1550 · Mackenzie McDonald 1473
| Jacob Fearnley | Mackenzie McDonald | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 39% |
| Market | 69% | 31% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jacob Fearnley (rating 1550 vs 1473).
- Mackenzie McDonald dominates on serve: 6.7 aces and 41.9% break avg.
- Jacob Fearnley is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Note: Jacob Fearnley makes many double faults (5.5/match).
Statistics
| Jacob Fearnley | Mackenzie McDonald | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 70% | 40% |
| Win % · Hard | 67% (9) | 25% (4) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.6-0.8 | 1.1-1.5 |
| Games (G-P) | 12.9-11.6 | 12.7-13.1 |
| Aces | 5.1 | 6.7 |
| Double faults | 5.5 | 2.8 |
| 1st serve % | 74.8% | 70.8% |
| Break % | 47.2% | 41.9% |
Estimated total games (ours)
24
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Jacob Fearnley
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08 | Nicolas Mejia ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 11-15 | L |
| 06/08 | Jakub Mensik ATP Montreal · Hard |
1-2 | 12-15 | L |
| 04/08 | Adrian Mannarino ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-10 | W |
| 01/08 | Sebastian Ofner ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-0 | 13-8 | W |
| 26/07 | Alex Michelsen Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 25/07 | Michael Zheng Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-7 | W |
| 24/07 | Jeffrey John Wolf Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-1 | 17-15 | W |
| 23/07 | Tristan Boyer Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 21/07 | Remy Bertola Challenger Bloomfield Hills · Hard |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 12/07 | Adam Walton Challenger Newport · Grass |
2-1 | 18-17 | W |
Mackenzie McDonald
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08 | Yibing Wu ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
1-2 | 17-15 | L |
| 28/07 | Alex Michelsen ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 9-13 | L |
| 26/07 | Trevor Svajda ATP Washington · Hard |
0-2 | 8-12 | L |
| 25/07 | Edas Butvilas ATP Washington · Hard |
2-1 | 15-13 | W |
| 08/07 | Adam Walton Challenger Newport · Grass |
0-2 | 4-12 | L |
| 30/06 | Patrick Kypson Wimbledon · Grass |
1-3 | 15-21 | L |
| 25/06 | Christopher O'Connell Wimbledon · Grass |
3-0 | 18-11 | W |
| 24/06 | Roberto Carballes Baena Wimbledon · Grass |
2-0 | 12-8 | W |
| 22/06 | Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves Wimbledon · Grass |
2-1 | 18-12 | W |
| 16/06 | Shintaro Mochizuki Challenger Nottingham · Grass |
0-2 | 11-14 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Jacob Fearnley vs Mackenzie McDonald?
Our model gives 65% to Jacob Fearnley, using surface Elo on hard.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (hard) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.