Tennis · Challenger Cancun · 18/08, 21:00
Prediction: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Nicolas Mejia
Team pages: Camilo Ugo Carabelli · Nicolas Mejia
Prediction summary
Winner
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Nicolas Mejia
Estimated games
25.5
Recent form · 10 last
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
2-8 (W-L)
Nicolas Mejia
6-4 (W-L)
Head-to-head
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
2–1
Nicolas Mejia
(3 last)
- 09 Aug2-0 12-5W
- 28 Sept2-0 12-3W
- 09 May0-2 8-12L
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Camilo Ugo Carabelli 1489 · Nicolas Mejia 1568
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Nicolas Mejia | |
|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 61% |
| Market | 46% | 54% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (surface Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nicolas Mejia (rating 1489 vs 1568).
- Nicolas Mejia is in better form: 70% recent wins.
- Head-to-head: Camilo Ugo Carabelli 2–1 Nicolas Mejia (3).
Statistics
| Camilo Ugo Carabelli | Nicolas Mejia | |
|---|---|---|
| Win % | 40% | 70% |
| Win % · Clay | 50% (8) | 100% (3) |
| Sets (G-P) | 1.3-1.5 | 1.4-1.1 |
| Games (G-P) | 13.5-14.8 | 12.7-11.3 |
| Aces | 5.1 | 5.3 |
| Double faults | 3.4 | 2.5 |
| 1st serve % | 68% | 68.8% |
| Break % | 36.7% | 44.2% |
Estimated total games (ours)
25.5
H2H · Camilo Ugo Carabelli 2 – 1 Nicolas Mejia (3)
Head-to-head (H2H) · Camilo Ugo Carabelli 2–1 Nicolas Mejia
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/22 Challenger Lima | 2-0 | 12-5 | W |
| 28/09/21 Challenger Lima | 2-0 | 12-3 | W |
| 09/05/19 M25 Pensacola | 0-2 | 8-12 | L |
Last 10 matches played
Last matches of each player (sets and games). W = win, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08 | Miomir Kecmanovic ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-12 | L |
| 04/08 | Cameron Norrie ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 10-13 | L |
| 20/07 | Titouan Droguet ATP Estoril · Clay |
1-2 | 10-15 | L |
| 16/07 | Roman Andres Burruchaga ATP Umag · Clay |
1-2 | 11-14 | L |
| 15/07 | Pablo Carreno Busta ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 17-16 | W |
| 14/07 | Marko Topo ATP Umag · Clay |
2-1 | 19-16 | W |
| 27/05 | Andrey Rublev French Open · Clay |
1-3 | 16-20 | L |
| 25/05 | Emilio Nava French Open · Clay |
3-0 | 19-12 | W |
| 21/05 | Aleksandar Kovacevic ATP Hamburg · Clay |
1-2 | 13-18 | L |
| 20/05 | Frances Tiafoe ATP Hamburg · Clay |
2-0 | 14-12 | W |
Nicolas Mejia
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| Date | Opponent | Sets | Games | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08 | Adam Walton ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
0-2 | 6-13 | L |
| 13/08 | Henrique Rocha ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 17-14 | W |
| 13/08 | Jacob Fearnley ATP Cincinnati · Hard |
2-1 | 15-11 | W |
| 05/08 | Lorenzo Musetti ATP Montreal · Hard |
0-2 | 8-13 | L |
| 03/08 | Martin Landaluce ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 01/08 | Marco Trungelliti ATP Montreal · Hard |
2-1 | 16-13 | W |
| 26/07 | Alex Hernandez ATP Los Cabos · Hard |
0-2 | 7-13 | L |
| 12/07 | Matias Soto Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 13-6 | W |
| 11/07 | Juan Pablo Varillas Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-1 | 17-12 | W |
| 10/07 | Hernan Casanova Challenger Bogota · Clay |
2-0 | 12-5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Nicolas Mejia?
Our model gives 57% to Nicolas Mejia, using surface Elo on clay.
What is the prediction based on?
On an Elo model by surface (clay) adjusted for opponent quality, compared with the market odds.